NBA games

HOU @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
117–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU35233326117
LAC36353429134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home LAC
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Reed Sheppard S 37 20 5 4
Jeff Green 19 19 3 2
Tari Eason S 27 17 5 2
Aaron Holiday 20 16 2 4
Cam Whitmore S 32 14 5 2
Jock Landale S 34 11 9 5
Jae'Sean Tate 17 7 4 1
Jalen Green S 15 5 0 3
N'Faly Dante 14 4 2 0
Nate Williams 16 4 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 37 35 3 10
Kawhi Leonard S 38 22 10 4
Ivica Zubac S 35 20 11 10
Bogdan Bogdanovic 29 16 3 5
Nicolas Batum 9 15 3 0
Kris Dunn S 31 9 2 3
Derrick Jones Jr. S 35 8 3 1
Kobe Brown 10 5 3 0
Drew Eubanks 13 4 5 0
Trentyn Flowers 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Reed Sheppard · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Reed Sheppard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
24%
2 Jalen Green HOU
22%
3 James Harden LAC
16%
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC
14%
5 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
12%
6 Kris Dunn LAC
11%
7 Steven Adams HOU
0%
8 Tari Eason HOU
0%
9 Cam Whitmore HOU
0%
10 Jock Landale HOU
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
29%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
22%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 24.4 6.6 3.9
2 James Harden LAC 23.4 4.9 8.6
3 Jalen Green HOU 22.9 5.2 4.1
4 Ivica Zubac LAC 18.4 11.1 3.1
5 Tari Eason HOU 11.4 6.2 1.8
6 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 10.0 2.9 3.2
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 8.6 3.3 1.2
8 Kris Dunn LAC 8.5 3.2 1.9
9 Steven Adams HOU 5.4 6.7 1.0
10 Cam Whitmore HOU 5.4 1.8 1.0
11 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.8 2.3 0.8
12 Reed Sheppard HOU 4.3 1.3 1.3
13 David Roddy HOU 4.2 2.9 0.9
14 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.1 1.3 1.0
15 Jock Landale HOU 3.7 2.1 0.5
16 N'Faly Dante HOU 3.3 3.2 0.5
17 Jack McVeigh HOU 3.3 1.1 0.5
18 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.2 1.9 0.8
19 Drew Eubanks LAC 3.1 2.6 0.6
20 Trentyn Flowers LAC 2.7 1.3 0.5
21 Jordan Miller LAC 2.6 1.4 0.6
22 Jeff Green HOU 2.5 1.4 0.4
23 Kobe Brown LAC 2.4 1.3 0.7
24 Cam Christie LAC 2.3 1.3 0.7
25 Patrick Baldwin Jr. LAC 2.3 1.1 0.3
26 Nate Williams HOU 1.9 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.