NBA games

DEN @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
124–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN33332731124
SAC25332533116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home SAC
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Christian Braun S 37 25 4 2
Aaron Gordon S 35 21 3 5
Michael Porter Jr. S 35 21 5 2
Nikola Jokic S 38 20 12 11
Jalen Pickett S 31 18 1 4
Peyton Watson 25 7 4 1
DeAndre Jordan 10 6 5 0
Russell Westbrook 17 5 4 4
Julian Strawther 11 1 7 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 44 27 0 11
DeMar DeRozan S 40 22 4 4
Keon Ellis S 32 20 6 2
Trey Lyles S 38 17 9 4
Domantas Sabonis S 39 13 12 2
Doug McDermott 15 9 2 1
Devin Carter 18 4 3 1
Isaac Jones 6 2 2 0
Jonas Valanciunas 9 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Christian Braun · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:00 Q1
"Christian Braun makes 26-foot three point jumper"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
15%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
3 Aaron Gordon DEN
12%
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
5 Zach LaVine SAC
10%
6 Christian Braun DEN
10%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
8 Trey Lyles SAC
7%
9 Keon Ellis SAC
7%
10 Jalen Pickett DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
31%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 31.0 10.6 10.7
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC 24.4 4.3 6.1
3 Zach LaVine SAC 23.0 4.0 3.5
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 20.5 12.1 6.0
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 19.2 4.9 4.4
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 18.2 6.9 3.2
7 Christian Braun DEN 17.5 5.8 3.7
8 Russell Westbrook DEN 16.2 4.8 6.2
9 Peyton Watson DEN 10.6 4.5 1.3
10 Keon Ellis SAC 9.5 3.7 2.4
11 Julian Strawther DEN 7.5 2.0 1.4
12 Trey Lyles SAC 7.4 4.1 1.4
13 Jalen Pickett DEN 6.6 2.6 3.2
14 Jonas Valanciunas SAC 5.7 4.7 1.0
15 DeAndre Jordan DEN 5.3 6.2 1.4
16 Devin Carter SAC 4.0 1.7 1.0
17 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.8 1.8 0.7
18 Dario Saric DEN 3.6 2.6 1.2
19 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.6 1.5 0.5
20 Doug McDermott SAC 3.5 1.0 0.6
21 Isaac Jones SAC 2.9 1.4 0.6
22 Markelle Fultz SAC 2.9 1.0 1.1
23 Jae Crowder SAC 2.8 1.6 0.6
24 Vlatko Cancar DEN 2.4 2.2 0.8
25 Trey Alexander DEN 2.1 0.9 0.4
26 PJ Hall DEN 2.0 1.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.