NBA games

OKC @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
125–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC29334320125
PHX39282619112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home PHX
90% 10%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Williams S 36 33 7 5
Chet Holmgren S 30 22 10 4
Alex Caruso S 27 19 5 3
Aaron Wiggins S 33 17 5 3
Kenrich Williams 31 13 4 4
Jaylin Williams 24 12 4 2
Isaiah Joe S 30 5 5 3
Adam Flagler 8 2 1 0
Dillon Jones 20 2 3 0
Branden Carlson 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bradley Beal S 39 25 1 4
Devin Booker S 40 20 6 14
Collin Gillespie 23 17 6 4
Ryan Dunn S 27 13 7 0
Royce O'Neale 19 11 1 2
Tyus Jones 15 10 3 2
Mason Plumlee 24 5 5 2
Grayson Allen S 23 4 4 1
Oso Ighodaro S 24 3 4 2
Damion Lee 2 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bradley Beal · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Bradley Beal makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
19%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
17%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
16%
4 Bradley Beal PHX
13%
5 Royce O'Neale PHX
12%
6 Ryan Dunn PHX
11%
7 Luguentz Dort OKC
10%
8 Isaiah Joe OKC
0%
9 Aaron Wiggins OKC
0%
10 Jaylin Williams OKC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
14%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 26.7 4.0 7.8
2 Jalen Williams OKC 23.6 4.9 5.8
3 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.8 6.7 2.3
4 Bradley Beal PHX 13.0 3.0 3.6
5 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.4 3.9 1.9
6 Isaiah Joe OKC 10.9 2.6 1.8
7 Cason Wallace OKC 10.8 3.3 2.8
8 Ryan Dunn PHX 9.6 4.6 1.2
9 Aaron Wiggins OKC 9.2 3.6 1.8
10 Grayson Allen PHX 9.1 2.2 1.7
11 Tyus Jones PHX 9.1 2.6 3.0
12 Collin Gillespie PHX 9.1 3.1 3.8
13 Alex Caruso OKC 8.6 4.0 2.5
14 Royce O'Neale PHX 8.0 3.9 2.0
15 Oso Ighodaro PHX 7.1 4.8 1.5
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.6 2.8 1.7
17 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.9 5.0 1.7
18 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.7 5.3 1.1
19 Cody Martin PHX 5.4 3.1 1.0
20 Monte Morris PHX 5.1 1.4 1.1
21 Damion Lee PHX 4.4 1.3 0.7
22 Branden Carlson OKC 4.2 2.1 0.7
23 Dillon Jones OKC 3.9 2.1 1.4
24 Bol Bol PHX 3.8 1.5 0.6
25 Adam Flagler OKC 3.1 1.4 0.9
26 Jalen Bridges PHX 2.6 1.3 0.6
27 TyTy Washington Jr. PHX 1.9 0.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.