NBA games

SA @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
114–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA23322138114
GS32193723111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home GS
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keldon Johnson 31 21 8 2
Stephon Castle S 35 21 3 5
Harrison Barnes S 36 20 4 2
Julian Champagnie 29 14 4 4
Chris Paul S 29 12 5 4
Devin Vassell S 28 11 5 3
Sandro Mamukelashvili 23 11 8 1
Blake Wesley 19 4 1 2
Bismack Biyombo S 11 0 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 37 30 8 3
Jimmy Butler III S 38 28 4 7
Draymond Green S 33 13 9 8
Buddy Hield 26 12 4 1
Jonathan Kuminga 18 12 3 1
Brandin Podziemski S 33 7 3 5
Moses Moody S 31 7 8 1
Kevon Looney 12 2 2 3
Trayce Jackson-Davis 3 0 3 0
Gui Santos 8 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jimmy Butler III · Layup (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Jimmy Butler III makes two point shot (Draymond Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III GS
14%
2 Stephon Castle SA
13%
3 Harrison Barnes SA
9%
4 Draymond Green GS
9%
5 Bismack Biyombo SA
9%
6 Moses Moody GS
9%
7 Brandin Podziemski GS
9%
8 Chris Paul SA
9%
9 Devin Vassell SA
9%
10 Stephen Curry GS
9%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
24%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 25.4 4.8 7.0
2 Stephon Castle SA 20.2 6.3 6.5
3 Brandin Podziemski GS 19.7 5.7 4.1
4 Jimmy Butler III GS 18.0 5.8 5.8
5 Devin Vassell SA 17.2 4.5 3.2
6 Harrison Barnes SA 14.7 3.6 1.8
7 Jonathan Kuminga GS 12.4 4.2 2.6
8 Keldon Johnson SA 12.2 5.4 2.2
9 Moses Moody GS 11.1 3.1 2.1
10 Draymond Green GS 11.0 5.6 5.8
11 Julian Champagnie SA 10.6 4.2 1.5
12 Chris Paul SA 10.1 3.3 5.5
13 Buddy Hield GS 9.0 3.1 1.7
14 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 7.2 3.7 1.2
15 Blake Wesley SA 6.2 2.3 1.8
16 Bismack Biyombo SA 6.1 6.2 1.2
17 Malaki Branham SA 5.6 1.4 1.0
18 Gui Santos GS 4.9 2.9 1.8
19 Braxton Key GS 4.5 1.9 0.8
20 Jackson Rowe GS 4.5 2.3 0.9
21 Kevon Looney GS 4.4 4.7 0.9
22 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 3.9 2.5 0.8
23 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.8 1.3 1.5
24 Pat Spencer GS 3.7 1.5 1.2
25 Kevin Knox II GS 3.5 1.9 0.7
26 Charles Bassey SA 2.9 3.4 0.4
27 David Duke Jr. SA 2.7 1.3 0.7
28 Harrison Ingram SA 2.4 2.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.