NBA games

NO @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
111136
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO26283126111
MIL21413836136

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home MIL
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lester Quinones 32 21 5 6
Jamal Cain 27 20 7 0
Keion Brooks Jr. S 32 20 6 0
Antonio Reeves S 37 16 4 3
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl S 34 15 10 3
Karlo Matkovic S 30 15 10 0
Kylor Kelley 23 2 7 1
Elfrid Payton S 26 2 4 15
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 26 28 11 5
Kevin Porter Jr. 23 20 5 7
Gary Trent Jr. 24 17 0 2
Kyle Kuzma S 28 17 3 1
Bobby Portis 22 14 8 0
Ryan Rollins S 19 12 1 2
Taurean Prince S 22 6 4 2
Andre Jackson Jr. 7 6 0 0
Pat Connaughton 8 5 0 1
Brook Lopez S 23 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 18-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
29%
2 Kyle Kuzma MIL
12%
3 Brook Lopez MIL
11%
4 Yves Missi NO
10%
5 Antonio Reeves NO
8%
6 Taurean Prince MIL
8%
7 Bruce Brown NO
7%
8 Jose Alvarado NO
7%
9 Ryan Rollins MIL
7%
10 Karlo Matkovic NO
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
74%
Jumper
7%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.3 10.8 8.6
2 Brook Lopez MIL 18.3 5.5 2.9
3 Kyle Kuzma MIL 17.3 5.1 3.2
4 Bobby Portis MIL 16.4 9.4 2.8
5 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 16.1 4.9 5.0
6 Jose Alvarado NO 13.7 3.3 5.5
7 Ryan Rollins MIL 12.3 3.2 4.0
8 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 11.8 2.6 1.6
9 Yves Missi NO 11.7 10.0 1.7
10 Antonio Reeves NO 11.3 2.1 1.6
11 Bruce Brown NO 11.1 4.8 2.3
12 Karlo Matkovic NO 10.9 5.2 1.8
13 Taurean Prince MIL 9.8 2.9 2.0
14 Keion Brooks Jr. NO 9.1 4.4 1.3
15 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 7.6 4.5 1.8
16 AJ Green MIL 7.6 2.7 1.6
17 Elfrid Payton NO 5.8 3.4 7.1
18 Jamal Cain NO 5.4 1.9 0.8
19 Lester Quinones NO 4.4 1.4 1.1
20 Kylor Kelley NO 3.5 2.6 0.6
21 Pat Connaughton MIL 3.2 1.3 1.1
22 Stanley Umude MIL 2.3 1.3 0.6
23 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.2 1.4 0.6
24 Chris Livingston MIL 1.7 1.1 0.3
25 Jamaree Bouyea MIL 1.6 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.