NBA games

MIA @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
111–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA32203227111
CHI27313427119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home CHI
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 36 30 4 4
Bam Adebayo S 35 18 6 3
Davion Mitchell 36 17 3 8
Andrew Wiggins S 27 14 6 5
Kel'el Ware S 25 12 7 1
Alec Burks S 16 7 2 0
Kyle Anderson 22 6 2 1
Haywood Highsmith 25 5 8 4
Duncan Robinson 18 2 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Giddey S 40 28 16 11
Kevin Huerter S 37 22 4 7
Nikola Vucevic S 35 20 11 8
Coby White S 36 18 5 4
Matas Buzelis S 34 17 4 0
Dalen Terry 16 6 1 3
Patrick Williams 14 4 0 0
Talen Horton-Tucker 8 2 1 0
Julian Phillips 7 2 0 0
Zach Collins 13 0 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI
8%
2 Josh Giddey CHI
8%
3 Bam Adebayo MIA
8%
4 Matas Buzelis CHI
7%
5 Coby White CHI
7%
6 Andrew Wiggins MIA
7%
7 Kel'el Ware MIA
6%
8 Tyler Herro MIA
6%
9 Kevin Huerter CHI
6%
10 Jalen Smith CHI
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
32%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 26.1 4.5 5.4
2 Coby White CHI 26.0 4.1 5.1
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 24.0 7.5 5.3
4 Josh Giddey CHI 22.2 10.3 9.0
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA 21.8 3.8 3.9
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.6 9.8 3.9
7 Matas Buzelis CHI 14.5 5.4 2.0
8 Davion Mitchell MIA 14.4 3.3 6.5
9 Kevin Huerter CHI 14.4 3.7 3.5
10 Kel'el Ware MIA 12.4 10.3 1.4
11 Kyle Anderson MIA 10.5 4.4 2.9
12 Patrick Williams CHI 10.2 3.2 2.2
13 Duncan Robinson MIA 9.9 2.0 1.6
14 Alec Burks MIA 8.4 2.0 1.3
15 Haywood Highsmith MIA 8.2 4.3 1.9
16 Pelle Larsson MIA 7.7 3.0 2.2
17 Jalen Smith CHI 7.4 5.9 1.3
18 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 7.2 1.7 1.1
19 Dalen Terry CHI 6.3 2.9 1.8
20 Zach Collins CHI 6.2 5.1 1.8
21 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 5.8 3.4 2.1
22 Terry Rozier MIA 5.7 2.2 1.5
23 Jevon Carter CHI 4.7 1.4 1.3
24 Julian Phillips CHI 4.0 1.7 0.7
25 Jahmir Young CHI 3.2 1.2 0.9
26 E.J. Liddell CHI 3.0 1.4 0.6
27 Emanuel Miller CHI 3.0 1.5 0.5
28 Josh Christopher MIA 2.6 1.0 0.7
29 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.6 1.3 0.6
30 Isaiah Stevens MIA 1.9 0.8 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.