NBA games

LAL @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
112–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL26342329112
DAL3027192197

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home DAL
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 38 45 8 6
LeBron James S 36 27 7 3
Rui Hachimura S 38 15 2 2
Austin Reaves S 38 11 4 4
Dorian Finney-Smith 33 5 5 5
Jaxson Hayes S 14 3 5 0
Gabe Vincent 17 2 1 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 13 2 5 1
Dalton Knecht 2 2 0 0
Trey Jemison III 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Naji Marshall S 36 23 4 8
P.J. Washington S 33 14 5 3
Anthony Davis S 33 13 11 6
Max Christie 28 11 3 3
Daniel Gafford 15 10 6 3
Caleb Martin 21 9 3 2
Dereck Lively II S 15 6 0 0
Klay Thompson S 28 6 2 1
Spencer Dinwiddie 29 5 3 4
Dwight Powell 2 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LeBron James · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:56 Q1
"LeBron James makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
11%
2 Anthony Davis DAL
10%
3 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
4 Dereck Lively II DAL
9%
5 LeBron James LAL
9%
6 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL
9%
7 Daniel Gafford DAL
8%
8 Jaxson Hayes LAL
7%
9 Rui Hachimura LAL
6%
10 Austin Reaves LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
40%
Jumper
18%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 28.4 6.6 7.0
2 LeBron James LAL 24.5 5.9 7.0
3 Austin Reaves LAL 24.2 4.4 5.1
4 Anthony Davis DAL 23.7 10.7 3.4
5 Naji Marshall DAL 18.0 6.0 3.7
6 P.J. Washington DAL 17.6 6.5 2.4
7 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 17.5 4.3 8.5
8 Klay Thompson DAL 12.4 3.1 1.8
9 Daniel Gafford DAL 12.2 8.3 1.8
10 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.6 3.8 1.4
11 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 10.2 3.9 1.7
12 Jaden Hardy DAL 9.9 1.9 1.7
13 Dereck Lively II DAL 9.7 7.6 2.3
14 Max Christie DAL 9.7 3.6 1.6
15 Gabe Vincent LAL 8.0 2.3 1.2
16 Jaxson Hayes LAL 7.3 5.1 1.1
17 Dante Exum DAL 6.5 1.4 1.6
18 Caleb Martin DAL 5.5 2.6 1.7
19 Dalton Knecht LAL 4.7 1.8 0.9
20 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.4 4.8 0.9
21 Jordan Goodwin LAL 4.4 2.8 1.1
22 Shake Milton LAL 4.3 1.9 1.1
23 Bronny James LAL 4.1 1.2 0.9
24 Trey Jemison III LAL 3.8 2.9 0.6
25 Markieff Morris LAL 3.2 1.1 0.9
26 Dwight Powell DAL 3.2 2.1 1.6
27 Alex Len LAL 2.0 2.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.