NBA games

CHA @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
96–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA2322232896
TOR25283538126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home TOR
15% 85%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nick Smith Jr. S 37 28 6 10
Jusuf Nurkic S 26 26 9 4
Wendell Moore Jr. 26 9 2 1
Tidjane Salaun S 31 9 6 0
DaQuan Jeffries S 24 7 6 1
KJ Simpson S 33 6 1 5
Damion Baugh 21 5 3 1
Jaylen Sims 24 4 3 1
Taj Gibson 18 2 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jared Rhoden 30 23 7 4
Scottie Barnes S 20 17 11 5
Jonathan Mogbo S 38 17 10 11
A.J. Lawson 28 14 6 7
RJ Barrett S 14 11 1 1
Jamison Battle 27 10 3 2
Orlando Robinson S 34 9 12 3
Garrett Temple 9 9 0 1
Immanuel Quickley S 14 8 2 1
Cole Swider 26 8 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
KJ Simpson · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:02 Q1
"KJ Simpson makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
17%
2 RJ Barrett TOR
14%
3 Immanuel Quickley TOR
11%
4 KJ Simpson CHA
11%
5 Jonathan Mogbo TOR
10%
6 Jamal Shead TOR
10%
7 Grant Williams CHA
9%
8 Ochai Agbaji TOR
8%
9 DaQuan Jeffries CHA
8%
10 Nick Smith Jr. CHA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
38%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 21.6 6.4 5.4
2 Immanuel Quickley TOR 20.0 4.4 6.8
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 18.2 6.2 5.5
4 Jamal Shead TOR 13.0 3.1 6.2
5 Grant Williams CHA 12.8 6.1 2.1
6 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 12.7 2.8 3.3
7 KJ Simpson CHA 11.4 3.2 3.9
8 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 11.1 6.9 3.5
9 Ochai Agbaji TOR 10.9 3.8 1.8
10 Orlando Robinson TOR 10.6 6.2 2.1
11 Tidjane Salaun CHA 10.1 6.1 1.9
12 Jamison Battle TOR 9.7 3.6 1.5
13 Jusuf Nurkic CHA 9.1 5.8 2.3
14 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 9.0 3.2 1.6
15 Jared Rhoden TOR 8.6 3.1 1.3
16 Seth Curry CHA 8.4 2.3 1.7
17 Jaylen Sims CHA 7.9 1.5 2.6
18 Chris Boucher TOR 7.6 4.4 1.1
19 Damion Baugh CHA 6.7 2.8 3.4
20 A.J. Lawson TOR 6.7 2.8 1.0
21 Cole Swider TOR 5.5 2.5 0.7
22 Wendell Moore Jr. CHA 4.6 2.9 1.2
23 Taj Gibson CHA 3.8 2.3 0.6
24 Garrett Temple TOR 3.0 1.1 1.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.