NBA games

PHI @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
122–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI25283633122
WSH23272924103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home WSH
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jeff Dowtin Jr. 29 30 0 3
Lonnie Walker IV S 29 24 0 1
Adem Bona S 32 17 9 0
Quentin Grimes S 30 17 11 7
Jared Butler S 29 13 6 4
Ricky Council IV 25 11 5 1
Alex Reese 11 4 2 0
Marcus Bagley S 27 4 8 2
Colin Castleton 28 2 14 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tristan Vukcevic 24 24 6 0
Justin Champagnie S 38 14 12 1
Kyshawn George S 25 13 4 2
Colby Jones 32 13 7 4
Bub Carrington S 26 12 4 6
Alex Sarr S 25 12 4 3
Jaylen Martin 30 8 4 3
AJ Johnson S 36 7 4 3
JT Thor 4 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Lonnie Walker IV · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Lonnie Walker IV makes 26-foot three point jumper (Quentin Grimes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
10%
2 Alex Sarr WSH
9%
3 Quentin Grimes PHI
8%
4 Bub Carrington WSH
8%
5 Justin Edwards PHI
8%
6 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI
8%
7 Adem Bona PHI
7%
8 Marcus Bagley PHI
7%
9 Andre Drummond PHI
6%
10 Justin Champagnie WSH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
42%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Quentin Grimes PHI 27.1 5.0 6.5
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 22.1 3.7 6.4
3 Alex Sarr WSH 17.9 6.1 3.1
4 Lonnie Walker IV PHI 16.5 4.0 4.0
5 Justin Edwards PHI 16.1 4.8 2.4
6 Bub Carrington WSH 15.4 4.8 6.0
7 Adem Bona PHI 14.1 9.5 1.7
8 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 13.8 3.0 2.6
9 Jared Butler PHI 13.7 3.0 5.6
10 AJ Johnson WSH 13.2 3.2 3.2
11 Ricky Council IV PHI 11.6 5.6 2.1
12 Kyshawn George WSH 11.4 5.1 2.9
13 Justin Champagnie WSH 11.3 7.3 1.6
14 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 10.6 4.3 1.3
15 Colby Jones WSH 10.6 3.9 2.2
16 Colin Castleton PHI 8.3 6.7 2.0
17 Marcus Smart WSH 8.1 2.3 2.7
18 Andre Drummond PHI 7.8 7.1 1.2
19 Richaun Holmes WSH 7.3 6.3 1.2
20 Alex Reese PHI 6.4 3.3 0.9
21 Marcus Bagley PHI 6.2 5.8 0.8
22 Anthony Gill WSH 6.1 3.0 1.1
23 Jaylen Martin WSH 5.9 3.0 1.3
24 JT Thor WSH 5.6 3.8 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.