NBA games

BOS @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
7696
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS2120201576
ORL2722311696

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home ORL
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Payton Pritchard S 35 15 4 10
Baylor Scheierman S 35 15 5 3
Luke Kornet S 25 14 3 1
Neemias Queta 25 11 7 2
Sam Hauser S 25 10 3 0
Miles Norris 19 6 3 0
Drew Peterson 13 3 4 0
Xavier Tillman 7 2 1 0
Torrey Craig S 28 0 7 1
JD Davison 17 0 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 26 23 8 2
Cole Anthony 22 18 8 3
Paolo Banchero S 29 15 4 6
Wendell Carter Jr. S 22 8 3 1
Anthony Black 33 6 5 2
Goga Bitadze 21 6 7 2
Gary Harris 13 6 0 0
Tristan da Silva 12 5 3 1
Caleb Houstan 26 5 4 2
Cory Joseph S 19 3 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Wendell Carter Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Wendell Carter Jr. makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Cory Joseph assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
24%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
20%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
15%
4 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
11%
5 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
10%
6 Cory Joseph ORL
10%
7 Derrick White BOS
9%
8 Sam Hauser BOS
0%
9 Payton Pritchard BOS
0%
10 Torrey Craig BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
77%
Jumper
4%
Layup
8%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 29.0 8.5 5.4
2 Franz Wagner ORL 23.4 5.9 5.4
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 17.4 4.7 3.6
4 Derrick White BOS 14.9 5.3 5.9
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 12.1 4.0 3.0
6 Anthony Black ORL 11.0 3.8 3.1
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.4 6.5 1.3
8 Sam Hauser BOS 10.3 3.5 1.1
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 9.6 3.0 1.9
10 Cole Anthony ORL 9.1 3.5 2.6
11 Luke Kornet BOS 8.3 6.5 1.3
12 Cory Joseph ORL 7.6 3.1 1.9
13 Caleb Houstan ORL 5.6 2.0 1.1
14 Baylor Scheierman BOS 4.7 2.2 1.1
15 Neemias Queta BOS 3.1 3.0 0.5
16 Goga Bitadze ORL 3.1 3.6 0.9
17 Torrey Craig BOS 3.0 2.5 0.5
18 Gary Harris ORL 3.0 1.7 0.9
19 Jonathan Isaac ORL 2.8 2.8 0.6
20 Tristan da Silva ORL 2.5 1.2 0.4
21 Jett Howard ORL 2.0 0.8 0.4
22 JD Davison BOS 1.9 0.7 0.4
23 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.8 1.4 0.5
24 Trevelin Queen ORL 1.8 1.1 0.3
25 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.7 0.9 0.4
26 Drew Peterson BOS 1.5 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.