NBA games

SA @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
117–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA26262639117
LAC28263731122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home LAC
11% 89%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Harrison Barnes S 31 24 5 1
Stephon Castle S 32 19 1 8
Keldon Johnson 22 12 6 2
Malaki Branham 4 9 0 0
Chris Paul S 25 9 2 3
Sandro Mamukelashvili 23 8 2 0
Blake Wesley 23 8 1 7
Devin Vassell S 25 7 1 2
Julian Champagnie 21 6 3 0
Jordan McLaughlin 4 6 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 41 25 5 3
Ivica Zubac S 39 24 20 5
James Harden S 38 21 9 12
Bogdan Bogdanovic 26 19 2 4
Derrick Jones Jr. S 26 18 2 1
Nicolas Batum 21 9 2 0
Kris Dunn S 28 6 1 3
Trentyn Flowers 1 0 0 0
Ben Simmons 15 0 7 2
Jordan Miller 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ivica Zubac · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Ivica Zubac makes 6-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
19%
2 James Harden LAC
12%
3 Stephon Castle SA
12%
4 Norman Powell LAC
12%
5 Harrison Barnes SA
11%
6 Bismack Biyombo SA
8%
7 Kris Dunn LAC
8%
8 Devin Vassell SA
8%
9 Chris Paul SA
8%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
15%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
26%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 24.4 4.9 8.9
2 Stephon Castle SA 20.0 6.5 6.6
3 Ivica Zubac LAC 19.6 12.4 3.1
4 Devin Vassell SA 16.7 4.5 3.1
5 Norman Powell LAC 15.6 2.6 2.4
6 Harrison Barnes SA 13.1 3.1 2.0
7 Keldon Johnson SA 11.5 5.4 2.1
8 Julian Champagnie SA 10.5 3.9 1.4
9 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 10.5 3.2 4.0
10 Chris Paul SA 10.1 3.4 5.5
11 Kris Dunn LAC 8.8 3.4 1.8
12 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 8.2 3.6 1.2
13 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 6.4 3.7 1.1
14 Blake Wesley SA 5.9 2.1 1.5
15 Bismack Biyombo SA 5.8 5.6 1.1
16 Malaki Branham SA 5.0 1.2 0.9
17 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.3 2.6 1.0
18 Ben Simmons LAC 3.7 3.4 2.4
19 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.5 1.1 1.2
20 Drew Eubanks LAC 3.4 2.7 0.7
21 Trentyn Flowers LAC 2.9 1.1 0.4
22 Charles Bassey SA 2.8 3.4 0.3
23 Jordan Miller LAC 2.8 1.5 0.7
24 Patrick Baldwin Jr. LAC 2.8 1.3 0.5
25 Kobe Brown LAC 2.4 1.2 0.9
26 Cam Christie LAC 2.4 1.2 0.8
27 David Duke Jr. SA 2.3 1.1 0.8
28 Harrison Ingram SA 1.0 1.4 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.