NBA games

GS @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
133–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS37322638133
PHX2419183495

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home PHX
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 26 25 9 6
Brandin Podziemski S 22 22 5 3
Trayce Jackson-Davis 19 13 8 1
Jimmy Butler III S 20 10 2 3
Kevin Knox II 9 10 2 1
Jonathan Kuminga 21 10 3 3
Pat Spencer 12 10 2 4
Buddy Hield 21 7 4 1
Gui Santos 21 7 9 3
Jackson Rowe 9 6 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 30 21 3 4
Grayson Allen 18 12 1 1
Ryan Dunn S 25 12 4 0
Damion Lee 9 8 2 0
Bradley Beal S 26 7 2 4
Monte Morris 7 7 2 2
Cody Martin 15 6 2 1
Collin Gillespie 24 6 3 4
Oso Ighodaro 21 4 7 0
Nick Richards S 20 4 9 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandin Podziemski · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Brandin Podziemski makes 25-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
17%
2 Devin Booker PHX
14%
3 Jimmy Butler III GS
13%
4 Nick Richards PHX
10%
5 Bradley Beal PHX
9%
6 Draymond Green GS
7%
7 Moses Moody GS
7%
8 Ryan Dunn PHX
7%
9 Royce O'Neale PHX
7%
10 Brandin Podziemski GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
40%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 26.2 3.9 7.6
2 Stephen Curry GS 24.0 4.2 6.4
3 Jimmy Butler III GS 19.9 5.9 6.4
4 Brandin Podziemski GS 18.4 5.6 3.9
5 Bradley Beal PHX 13.9 3.3 4.4
6 Jonathan Kuminga GS 12.0 3.9 2.6
7 Draymond Green GS 10.6 6.2 5.2
8 Moses Moody GS 10.5 3.1 2.1
9 Ryan Dunn PHX 9.5 4.7 1.1
10 Nick Richards PHX 9.1 6.0 1.0
11 Grayson Allen PHX 9.1 2.1 1.9
12 Tyus Jones PHX 9.1 2.7 3.1
13 Buddy Hield GS 8.9 3.2 1.6
14 Collin Gillespie PHX 8.2 3.0 3.3
15 Royce O'Neale PHX 8.0 4.2 2.0
16 Oso Ighodaro PHX 7.2 4.9 1.7
17 Vasilije Micic PHX 5.2 1.6 2.1
18 Cody Martin PHX 4.9 3.2 1.2
19 Mason Plumlee PHX 4.9 5.1 0.8
20 Gui Santos GS 4.2 2.2 1.5
21 Kevon Looney GS 3.9 4.0 0.8
22 Bol Bol PHX 3.7 1.6 0.6
23 Jackson Rowe GS 3.6 1.9 0.8
24 Kevin Knox II GS 3.3 1.8 0.7
25 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 3.1 1.7 0.7
26 Damion Lee PHX 3.1 0.7 0.4
27 Monte Morris PHX 2.9 0.8 0.7
28 Pat Spencer GS 2.6 1.1 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.