NBA games

LAL @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
120–136
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL43292622120
OKC43371739136

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home OKC
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 35 28 7 3
Austin Reaves S 38 24 5 5
Luka Doncic S 31 23 3 5
Dorian Finney-Smith S 32 12 2 2
Jarred Vanderbilt 20 8 12 1
Jaxson Hayes S 27 7 6 2
Jordan Goodwin 13 6 4 1
Gabe Vincent 25 5 0 2
Dalton Knecht 14 3 3 0
Christian Koloko 2 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 37 42 6 6
Jalen Williams S 35 26 4 4
Luguentz Dort S 31 17 3 2
Chet Holmgren S 25 14 4 2
Cason Wallace 27 11 2 1
Alex Caruso 19 9 4 3
Isaiah Hartenstein S 29 8 15 4
Kenrich Williams 9 3 1 0
Isaiah Joe 12 3 1 1
Aaron Wiggins 13 3 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:50 Q1
"Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 5-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
18%
2 LeBron James LAL
15%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
4 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
5 Jalen Williams OKC
10%
6 Jaxson Hayes LAL
9%
7 Luka Doncic LAL
9%
8 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
10 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
43%
Jumper
10%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.0 4.6 7.8
2 Luka Doncic LAL 27.0 7.1 7.5
3 LeBron James LAL 23.2 6.4 7.3
4 Austin Reaves LAL 23.2 4.4 5.2
5 Jalen Williams OKC 23.0 4.8 5.6
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.3 7.4 2.3
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 13.0 8.8 3.5
8 Isaiah Joe OKC 11.6 2.9 2.0
9 Cason Wallace OKC 11.6 3.4 2.9
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC 11.4 3.9 2.0
11 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.3 3.9 1.7
12 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 9.9 3.8 1.8
13 Alex Caruso OKC 8.2 3.7 2.5
14 Gabe Vincent LAL 7.9 2.2 1.2
15 Kenrich Williams OKC 7.3 3.2 1.8
16 Jaxson Hayes LAL 7.1 4.9 1.1
17 Dalton Knecht LAL 5.2 1.5 0.9
18 Jordan Goodwin LAL 4.4 2.9 1.3
19 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 3.9 3.6 0.9
20 Shake Milton LAL 3.9 1.4 1.0
21 Dillon Jones OKC 3.7 2.2 1.4
22 Branden Carlson OKC 3.5 1.6 0.5
23 Christian Koloko LAL 3.4 2.6 0.6
24 Trey Jemison III LAL 3.0 2.5 0.4
25 Markieff Morris LAL 2.8 1.0 0.9
26 Adam Flagler OKC 1.9 0.9 0.7
27 Alex Len LAL 1.5 2.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.