NBA games

MIN @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
103–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN28283413103
MIL23222540110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home MIL
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 39 25 7 4
Donte DiVincenzo 28 24 3 2
Naz Reid 26 17 4 3
Jaden McDaniels S 30 13 5 3
Julius Randle S 35 9 7 6
Rudy Gobert S 34 6 9 2
Mike Conley S 28 5 4 3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 16 4 3 1
Jaylen Clark 4 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 38 23 13 10
Kevin Porter Jr. 25 21 4 5
Bobby Portis 29 18 10 1
Kyle Kuzma S 25 10 4 0
Brook Lopez S 28 10 2 1
AJ Green 23 9 4 1
Gary Trent Jr. 25 7 2 4
Taurean Prince S 25 7 2 1
Ryan Rollins S 23 5 2 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julius Randle · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Julius Randle makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
19%
2 Julius Randle MIN
10%
3 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
4 Kyle Kuzma MIL
9%
5 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
6 Anthony Edwards MIN
8%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
8 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
6%
9 Taurean Prince MIL
6%
10 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
71%
Jumper
4%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 30.2 10.7 8.4
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.3 4.8 4.8
3 Julius Randle MIN 20.3 6.0 5.2
4 Brook Lopez MIL 18.0 5.9 2.6
5 Kyle Kuzma MIL 17.5 5.3 3.6
6 Bobby Portis MIL 14.7 9.4 2.7
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 14.5 11.1 1.8
8 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 13.8 4.7 4.2
9 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 12.9 2.6 1.4
10 Ryan Rollins MIL 12.3 3.3 4.0
11 Naz Reid MIN 11.8 5.4 2.8
12 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 11.4 4.1 3.5
13 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 11.2 3.5 3.4
14 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.5 5.2 1.7
15 Mike Conley MIN 10.1 2.5 4.5
16 Taurean Prince MIL 9.7 2.7 1.9
17 AJ Green MIL 7.4 2.5 1.5
18 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.3 1.6 1.0
19 Luka Garza MIN 3.5 0.9 0.5
20 Josh Minott MIN 2.7 1.0 0.5
21 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.4 1.5 0.6
22 Tyler Smith MIL 2.0 0.7 0.4
23 Joe Ingles MIN 1.9 0.8 1.1
24 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 1.9 0.8 0.5
25 Rob Dillingham MIN 1.8 0.7 0.5
26 Leonard Miller MIN 1.7 1.1 0.3
27 Chris Livingston MIL 1.7 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.