NBA games

BOS @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
119–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
BOS2725312412119
NY3028202910117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home NY
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kristaps Porzingis S 39 34 4 3
Jayson Tatum S 48 32 7 5
Jrue Holiday S 37 16 4 3
Derrick White S 43 14 8 9
Payton Pritchard 30 8 5 3
Sam Hauser 28 7 2 1
Jaylen Brown S 22 6 5 1
Luke Kornet 19 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 43 34 14 2
Jalen Brunson S 38 27 1 10
Mikal Bridges S 38 14 4 4
OG Anunoby S 41 13 8 1
Josh Hart S 48 10 11 7
Cameron Payne 14 7 0 2
Miles McBride 21 5 5 1
Mitchell Robinson 16 4 7 1
Landry Shamet 7 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
14%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
11%
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
9%
4 Jaylen Brown BOS
9%
5 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
6 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
8%
7 Luke Kornet BOS
8%
8 OG Anunoby NY
7%
9 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
10 Josh Hart NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
49%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.2 7.5 6.5
2 Jalen Brunson NY 24.5 3.9 6.5
3 OG Anunoby NY 23.8 4.8 3.3
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 23.7 10.5 3.4
5 Mikal Bridges NY 21.3 3.8 4.9
6 Jaylen Brown BOS 19.6 4.9 3.8
7 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 19.3 6.5 2.5
8 Derrick White BOS 16.1 4.8 5.9
9 Josh Hart NY 13.6 7.5 6.0
10 Payton Pritchard BOS 13.5 4.2 3.1
11 Jrue Holiday BOS 12.9 4.4 4.8
12 Sam Hauser BOS 10.3 3.5 1.1
13 Miles McBride NY 10.1 3.0 4.2
14 Luke Kornet BOS 8.6 7.1 1.3
15 Landry Shamet NY 7.7 1.8 1.1
16 Cameron Payne NY 6.6 2.0 3.2
17 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.5 6.0 0.8
18 Delon Wright NY 5.5 2.0 2.0
19 Baylor Scheierman BOS 5.3 2.3 1.2
20 Precious Achiuwa NY 4.8 3.5 0.8
21 Torrey Craig BOS 3.6 2.7 0.6
22 Neemias Queta BOS 3.6 3.3 0.5
23 Tyler Kolek NY 2.9 0.9 3.9
24 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.4 1.6 0.6
25 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.3 1.2 0.5
26 JD Davison BOS 2.1 0.8 0.4
27 Drew Peterson BOS 1.6 0.8 0.4
28 Anton Watson NY 1.3 0.8 0.4
29 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.1 0.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.