NBA games

NO @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
114119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO24292635114
BKN26284322119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home BKN
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karlo Matkovic 26 17 4 1
Antonio Reeves S 30 17 3 2
Jose Alvarado S 23 16 1 4
Jamal Cain 16 15 3 0
Keion Brooks Jr. 23 14 5 0
Yves Missi S 19 9 5 0
Bruce Brown S 20 9 3 1
Kelly Olynyk S 22 8 1 3
Lester Quinones 20 3 2 3
Elfrid Payton 23 3 6 10
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trendon Watford S 23 22 3 5
Drew Timme 29 16 9 1
Dariq Whitehead 25 14 2 2
Nic Claxton S 17 13 4 3
Tosan Evbuomwan 24 13 4 2
Maxwell Lewis 28 12 5 2
Tyson Etienne 26 11 1 1
Jalen Wilson S 21 9 4 3
Ziaire Williams S 17 9 4 1
Reece Beekman S 31 0 4 10

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Trendon Watford · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Trendon Watford makes 1-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Yves Missi NO
9%
2 Nic Claxton BKN
9%
3 Ziaire Williams BKN
8%
4 Kelly Olynyk NO
7%
5 Trendon Watford BKN
7%
6 Reece Beekman BKN
7%
7 Elfrid Payton NO
7%
8 Drew Timme BKN
7%
9 Noah Clowney BKN
7%
10 Bruce Brown NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
23%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
16%
Layup
49%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trendon Watford BKN 13.0 4.0 3.3
2 Nic Claxton BKN 12.8 8.8 2.4
3 Kelly Olynyk NO 12.7 5.2 3.9
4 Jose Alvarado NO 12.7 3.1 5.3
5 Drew Timme BKN 12.4 5.6 2.1
6 Bruce Brown NO 12.3 5.1 2.7
7 Yves Missi NO 11.7 10.7 1.7
8 Ziaire Williams BKN 11.6 3.7 1.6
9 Tosan Evbuomwan BKN 9.7 4.1 2.1
10 Antonio Reeves NO 9.5 1.9 1.3
11 Karlo Matkovic NO 9.5 5.4 1.7
12 Tyrese Martin BKN 9.5 3.5 3.1
13 Jalen Wilson BKN 8.7 2.9 1.4
14 Keion Brooks Jr. NO 8.4 4.2 1.2
15 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 8.3 3.8 1.6
16 Tyson Etienne BKN 8.2 2.5 2.5
17 Maxwell Lewis BKN 6.8 3.3 1.2
18 Noah Clowney BKN 6.4 2.8 1.0
19 Dariq Whitehead BKN 6.3 1.8 1.1
20 Elfrid Payton NO 5.4 3.2 5.8
21 Lester Quinones NO 4.5 1.6 0.9
22 Reece Beekman BKN 4.5 1.7 1.4
23 Jamal Cain NO 4.4 2.0 0.8
24 Kylor Kelley NO 3.5 2.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.