NBA games

ATL @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
112–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL31262728112
ORL30362627119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home ORL
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Onyeka Okongwu S 40 30 14 4
Trae Young S 37 28 1 10
Dyson Daniels S 34 15 5 3
Caris LeVert 30 13 6 0
Georges Niang 20 9 1 0
Zaccharie Risacher S 16 8 1 1
Mouhamed Gueye S 18 6 5 2
Vit Krejci 15 3 4 0
Terance Mann 30 0 4 5
Dominick Barlow 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 37 33 10 4
Franz Wagner S 40 22 6 6
Wendell Carter Jr. S 37 17 9 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 33 15 3 2
Cory Joseph S 26 8 5 1
Anthony Black 21 8 1 2
Caleb Houstan 17 7 2 2
Jonathan Isaac 11 5 5 1
Gary Harris 8 3 0 1
Cole Anthony 10 1 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Onyeka Okongwu · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Onyeka Okongwu makes 25-foot three point jumper (Zaccharie Risacher assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
15%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
14%
3 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
11%
4 Dyson Daniels ATL
11%
5 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
10%
6 Trae Young ATL
9%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
8 Cory Joseph ORL
7%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
7%
10 Georges Niang ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
41%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 27.7 8.8 5.7
2 Trae Young ATL 26.0 3.1 11.1
3 Franz Wagner ORL 24.7 6.1 5.3
4 Dyson Daniels ATL 17.7 6.9 4.7
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 16.4 9.4 2.8
6 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 14.6 3.7 1.7
7 Anthony Black ORL 12.4 4.1 3.3
8 Caris LeVert ATL 11.7 3.6 3.0
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.7 7.1 1.1
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 10.1 2.9 2.0
11 Cole Anthony ORL 9.6 3.4 2.4
12 Georges Niang ATL 9.1 1.8 1.5
13 Terance Mann ATL 8.8 3.1 1.2
14 Cory Joseph ORL 7.3 2.8 2.2
15 Vit Krejci ATL 7.2 2.8 1.9
16 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 5.0 3.4 0.8
17 Caleb Houstan ORL 5.0 1.4 0.8
18 Dominick Barlow ATL 4.5 3.5 0.9
19 Daeqwon Plowden ATL 3.6 1.6 0.4
20 Goga Bitadze ORL 3.5 3.8 1.0
21 Keaton Wallace ATL 3.4 1.1 1.8
22 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.2 1.3 0.4
23 Tristan da Silva ORL 3.1 1.4 0.5
24 Jett Howard ORL 2.4 0.9 0.5
25 Jonathan Isaac ORL 2.1 2.2 0.4
26 Gary Harris ORL 2.1 1.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.