NBA games

WSH @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
98–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH3513252598
IND21272432104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home IND
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Justin Champagnie S 35 20 13 0
Alex Sarr S 32 20 12 6
Jordan Poole S 19 19 1 3
Bub Carrington S 43 13 4 4
Kyshawn George S 23 9 4 2
AJ Johnson 25 8 1 0
JT Thor 25 7 6 0
Colby Jones 32 2 5 3
Anthony Gill 7 0 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 34 24 10 3
Tyrese Haliburton S 31 22 1 6
Bennedict Mathurin 27 17 4 2
Myles Turner S 35 14 11 1
Obi Toppin 20 12 7 3
Aaron Nesmith S 29 7 6 1
Andrew Nembhard S 31 4 7 4
Thomas Bryant 4 2 0 0
T.J. McConnell 17 2 2 1
Johnny Furphy 7 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alex Sarr · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Alex Sarr makes 5-foot two point shot (Bub Carrington assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
10%
2 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
3 Alex Sarr WSH
9%
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND
8%
5 Myles Turner IND
8%
6 Kyshawn George WSH
7%
7 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
8 Obi Toppin IND
7%
9 AJ Johnson WSH
7%
10 Justin Champagnie WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
35%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Haliburton IND 21.5 4.3 10.2
2 Jordan Poole WSH 18.6 2.7 3.8
3 Myles Turner IND 17.7 7.5 1.8
4 Pascal Siakam IND 17.4 5.2 4.3
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND 16.8 5.2 2.3
6 Alex Sarr WSH 16.2 5.9 2.2
7 Bub Carrington WSH 13.7 4.9 5.1
8 Aaron Nesmith IND 13.5 4.6 1.5
9 AJ Johnson WSH 12.9 3.3 3.1
10 Obi Toppin IND 11.9 3.9 2.0
11 Andrew Nembhard IND 11.7 4.7 4.8
12 Kyshawn George WSH 10.9 4.3 2.4
13 Malcolm Brogdon WSH 10.0 3.4 4.2
14 Justin Champagnie WSH 9.8 6.6 1.3
15 Colby Jones WSH 9.4 3.6 1.9
16 T.J. McConnell IND 8.6 3.9 4.6
17 Marcus Smart WSH 7.7 2.3 2.3
18 Jarace Walker IND 7.5 3.1 1.8
19 Richaun Holmes WSH 7.0 6.4 1.0
20 Anthony Gill WSH 5.8 2.7 1.0
21 Thomas Bryant IND 5.8 3.4 0.7
22 JT Thor WSH 4.4 2.9 0.7
23 Tony Bradley IND 4.2 2.6 0.7
24 Johnny Furphy IND 2.8 2.1 0.6
25 Enrique Freeman IND 1.9 0.9 0.4
26 RayJ Dennis IND 1.9 1.0 0.7
27 James Johnson IND 1.6 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.