NBA games

CHI @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
113–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI24243728113
CLE25433037135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home CLE
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Patrick Williams S 26 21 3 5
Matas Buzelis S 27 19 5 5
Talen Horton-Tucker 30 17 2 3
Jalen Smith S 32 13 10 2
Jevon Carter S 34 10 1 3
Dalen Terry S 24 9 3 1
Zach Collins 24 7 13 3
Julian Phillips 19 7 2 1
E.J. Liddell 10 6 3 0
Jahmir Young 10 4 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 29 28 2 5
Evan Mobley S 29 21 12 7
Ty Jerome 21 18 0 5
De'Andre Hunter 27 17 3 4
Jarrett Allen S 29 12 9 3
Dean Wade 21 9 3 1
Sam Merrill 22 9 2 3
Max Strus S 25 9 5 4
Jaylon Tyson 3 5 2 0
Emoni Bates 3 3 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Patrick Williams · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Patrick Williams makes 28-foot three point jumper"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
17%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
17%
3 Darius Garland CLE
16%
4 Matas Buzelis CHI
16%
5 Lonzo Ball CHI
12%
6 Max Strus CLE
11%
7 Chuma Okeke CLE
10%
8 De'Andre Hunter CLE
0%
9 Jalen Smith CHI
0%
10 Patrick Williams CHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
38%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
18%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Darius Garland CLE 20.2 4.4 7.1
2 Evan Mobley CLE 19.9 8.8 3.9
3 Jarrett Allen CLE 16.0 7.7 2.3
4 Ty Jerome CLE 13.7 2.7 3.7
5 Matas Buzelis CHI 13.4 5.0 1.7
6 De'Andre Hunter CLE 12.5 3.9 1.7
7 Max Strus CLE 11.0 3.8 3.2
8 Lonzo Ball CHI 10.6 3.5 2.2
9 Patrick Williams CHI 9.4 3.2 1.8
10 Isaac Okoro CLE 7.2 2.5 1.2
11 Sam Merrill CLE 6.6 3.2 2.0
12 Dalen Terry CHI 6.2 2.9 1.8
13 Zach Collins CHI 6.0 4.6 1.7
14 Dean Wade CLE 5.9 2.9 1.0
15 Jalen Smith CHI 5.7 5.5 1.0
16 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 5.4 1.8 1.0
17 Jevon Carter CHI 4.8 1.5 1.7
18 Chuma Okeke CLE 4.7 3.1 1.2
19 Julian Phillips CHI 3.9 1.8 0.7
20 Emanuel Miller CHI 3.5 1.7 0.5
21 Jahmir Young CHI 3.2 1.4 0.9
22 Javonte Green CLE 3.2 1.9 0.8
23 E.J. Liddell CHI 3.0 1.4 0.6
24 Jaylon Tyson CLE 2.7 0.9 0.8
25 Emoni Bates CLE 1.9 0.5 0.5
26 Luke Travers CLE 1.8 1.1 0.5
27 Tristan Thompson CLE 1.7 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.