NBA games

MEM @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
124–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM33303427124
CHA18263026100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home CHA
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja Morant S 27 28 5 8
Desmond Bane S 25 19 5 3
Zach Edey S 31 17 19 0
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 27 14 5 1
Santi Aldama 25 11 3 2
Scotty Pippen Jr. 23 10 1 2
Vince Williams Jr. 17 8 3 1
GG Jackson 5 6 2 0
Lamar Stevens 5 3 0 0
Jay Huff 7 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 30 14 6 3
Tidjane Salaun 29 13 9 3
Josh Okogie S 18 12 2 1
Moussa Diabate 17 10 2 2
Jaylen Sims 18 9 0 3
Seth Curry 19 9 0 1
Mark Williams S 31 8 7 2
Nick Smith Jr. 14 8 2 2
KJ Simpson S 15 7 2 2
Taj Gibson 14 6 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ja Morant · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Ja Morant makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
14%
2 Desmond Bane MEM
12%
3 Mark Williams CHA
12%
4 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
9%
6 KJ Simpson CHA
8%
7 Zach Edey MEM
7%
8 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM
7%
9 Jaylen Wells MEM
7%
10 Josh Okogie CHA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
11%
Layup
46%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Ja Morant MEM 30.2 4.7 7.2
2 Desmond Bane MEM 22.3 4.8 5.2
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 20.4 5.7 2.3
4 Miles Bridges CHA 20.1 6.2 4.6
5 Mark Williams CHA 17.5 11.0 3.7
6 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 15.5 4.4 5.8
7 Santi Aldama MEM 13.2 5.3 3.1
8 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 13.1 2.7 3.5
9 KJ Simpson CHA 12.0 3.3 4.7
10 Tidjane Salaun CHA 10.1 5.9 2.0
11 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 9.7 3.2 1.6
12 Jusuf Nurkic CHA 9.7 5.9 2.5
13 Jaylen Wells MEM 9.6 3.5 1.8
14 Seth Curry CHA 9.3 2.3 1.9
15 Zach Edey MEM 8.8 8.7 1.7
16 Josh Okogie CHA 8.4 3.2 1.7
17 Moussa Diabate CHA 7.3 5.1 0.9
18 Luke Kennard MEM 6.9 2.6 3.0
19 GG Jackson MEM 5.5 3.1 1.1
20 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 5.2 2.6 1.5
21 Jay Huff MEM 4.7 2.0 0.7
22 Cam Spencer MEM 4.0 1.2 0.9
23 Taj Gibson CHA 3.9 2.9 0.8
24 Lamar Stevens MEM 3.2 2.2 0.5
25 Marvin Bagley III MEM 2.6 2.0 0.3
26 John Konchar MEM 2.5 2.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.