NBA games

PHI @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
105–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI28253022105
MIA29322234117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home MIA
9% 91%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lonnie Walker IV S 40 29 1 2
Quentin Grimes S 38 29 8 6
Adem Bona S 35 16 11 1
Jared Butler S 25 8 3 4
Marcus Bagley S 23 6 6 0
Ricky Council IV 19 5 5 2
Kyle Lowry 20 5 1 1
Colin Castleton 13 4 6 3
Alex Reese 6 3 2 0
Jalen Hood-Schifino 20 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Duncan Robinson 26 21 2 1
Tyler Herro S 33 20 5 2
Kel'el Ware S 35 19 17 2
Davion Mitchell 36 12 4 9
Pelle Larsson S 26 12 3 2
Alec Burks S 15 11 0 2
Haywood Highsmith S 29 9 3 0
Kyle Anderson 25 8 8 6
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 15 5 5 2
Josh Christopher 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jared Butler · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Jared Butler makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
2 Andrew Wiggins MIA
10%
3 Justin Edwards PHI
9%
4 Tyler Herro MIA
9%
5 Kel'el Ware MIA
9%
6 Adem Bona PHI
9%
7 Quentin Grimes PHI
9%
8 Andre Drummond PHI
8%
9 Duncan Robinson MIA
8%
10 Jared Butler PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
32%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 25.5 4.6 5.6
2 Quentin Grimes PHI 25.2 4.4 5.9
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 24.2 7.7 5.7
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA 22.2 3.9 4.2
5 Justin Edwards PHI 15.0 4.6 2.2
6 Davion Mitchell MIA 14.4 3.5 6.4
7 Lonnie Walker IV PHI 13.1 3.7 3.5
8 Jared Butler PHI 12.6 2.5 5.0
9 Adem Bona PHI 12.5 8.0 1.5
10 Kel'el Ware MIA 12.5 10.6 1.5
11 Ricky Council IV PHI 10.7 5.0 1.9
12 Duncan Robinson MIA 10.0 2.2 1.7
13 Kyle Anderson MIA 9.5 3.8 2.6
14 Jalen Hood-Schifino PHI 8.9 2.2 2.6
15 Alec Burks MIA 8.4 2.3 1.4
16 Oshae Brissett PHI 8.1 2.9 0.9
17 Haywood Highsmith MIA 8.0 4.5 2.1
18 Colin Castleton PHI 7.8 6.6 1.8
19 Pelle Larsson MIA 7.3 3.1 2.3
20 Andre Drummond PHI 6.9 6.6 1.0
21 Terry Rozier MIA 6.7 2.6 1.8
22 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 5.7 3.1 2.1
23 Marcus Bagley PHI 5.2 4.9 0.6
24 Alex Reese PHI 4.9 3.2 0.5
25 Kyle Lowry PHI 4.0 2.1 2.4
26 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.0 1.6 0.5
27 Josh Christopher MIA 1.9 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.