NBA games

SAC @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
127–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC38243530127
DET37352223117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home DET
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 45 43 3 4
DeMar DeRozan S 37 37 4 2
Domantas Sabonis S 35 19 15 10
Jonas Valanciunas 13 10 12 1
Trey Lyles S 38 7 6 1
Devin Carter 22 7 2 1
Malik Monk 6 2 0 1
Keon Ellis S 37 2 6 0
Isaac Jones 4 0 1 0
Doug McDermott 3 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 33 35 3 5
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 35 19 0 2
Ausar Thompson S 29 15 4 5
Malik Beasley 30 14 1 2
Marcus Sasser 10 8 1 3
Isaiah Stewart 28 8 10 4
Jalen Duren S 20 6 9 6
Ronald Holland II 15 5 4 1
Dennis Schroder S 32 5 3 2
Simone Fontecchio 8 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cade Cunningham · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Cade Cunningham makes driving layup (Jalen Duren assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
14%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
13%
3 Jalen Duren DET
11%
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC
9%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
6 Dennis Schroder DET
8%
7 Zach LaVine SAC
8%
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
8%
9 Isaiah Stewart DET
7%
10 Trey Lyles SAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
76%
Jumper
9%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 29.3 6.7 8.6
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC 24.2 4.2 6.1
3 Zach LaVine SAC 21.1 4.0 3.5
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 20.0 11.8 5.8
5 Malik Monk SAC 19.6 4.4 4.9
6 Jalen Duren DET 15.6 10.1 3.3
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 14.4 2.8 1.7
8 Malik Beasley DET 14.4 3.0 2.1
9 Ausar Thompson DET 13.6 6.5 2.7
10 Dennis Schroder DET 13.3 3.1 6.0
11 Keon Ellis SAC 9.4 3.5 2.3
12 Ronald Holland II DET 8.4 3.2 1.9
13 Isaiah Stewart DET 7.8 5.1 1.6
14 Marcus Sasser DET 7.7 1.7 1.8
15 Trey Lyles SAC 7.2 4.2 1.5
16 Simone Fontecchio DET 6.0 2.4 0.8
17 Jonas Valanciunas SAC 5.5 4.2 0.9
18 Paul Reed DET 3.9 3.0 0.9
19 Isaac Jones SAC 3.7 1.8 0.6
20 Lindy Waters III DET 3.5 1.3 0.9
21 Markelle Fultz SAC 3.3 1.2 1.2
22 Devin Carter SAC 3.2 1.8 0.8
23 Jae Crowder SAC 3.2 1.9 0.6
24 Doug McDermott SAC 2.9 0.8 0.5
25 Tolu Smith DET 2.8 2.0 0.6
26 Daniss Jenkins DET 2.7 1.2 0.6
27 Bobi Klintman DET 1.3 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.