NBA games

HOU @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
106–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU18333223106
GS2426262096

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home GS
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 29 24 3 2
Jalen Green S 34 21 3 5
Alperen Sengun S 33 19 14 4
Jabari Smith Jr. 27 16 9 1
Amen Thompson S 29 14 6 6
Tari Eason 20 4 3 3
Aaron Holiday 11 3 2 1
Fred VanVleet S 36 3 1 3
Steven Adams 17 2 8 1
Jae'Sean Tate 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Buddy Hield 25 20 2 2
Brandin Podziemski S 31 19 6 4
Gary Payton II 20 16 5 2
Jimmy Butler III S 33 13 5 3
Jonathan Kuminga 19 9 7 3
Kevon Looney 22 5 11 0
Trayce Jackson-Davis 2 4 1 0
Moses Moody S 14 3 3 0
Stephen Curry S 33 3 2 8
Draymond Green S 27 2 3 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Amen Thompson · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:56 Q1
"Amen Thompson makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
2 Jalen Green HOU
12%
3 Jimmy Butler III GS
11%
4 Amen Thompson HOU
11%
5 Moses Moody GS
8%
6 Steven Adams HOU
8%
7 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
8 Dillon Brooks HOU
7%
9 Draymond Green GS
7%
10 Stephen Curry GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
43%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green HOU 23.7 5.8 5.1
2 Stephen Curry GS 23.1 4.2 5.6
3 Jimmy Butler III GS 19.8 6.1 6.2
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 19.4 10.1 5.4
5 Amen Thompson HOU 16.7 8.3 5.2
6 Brandin Podziemski GS 15.7 5.1 2.9
7 Fred VanVleet HOU 14.5 3.4 5.2
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 14.3 3.4 2.1
9 Tari Eason HOU 13.5 6.8 1.9
10 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.4 7.6 1.7
11 Jonathan Kuminga GS 12.4 3.8 2.7
12 Draymond Green GS 10.9 6.5 4.9
13 Moses Moody GS 10.7 3.1 2.0
14 Gary Payton II GS 9.2 3.4 1.4
15 Buddy Hield GS 8.2 2.9 1.5
16 Quinten Post GS 7.8 2.7 1.4
17 Steven Adams HOU 6.3 7.6 1.2
18 Cam Whitmore HOU 5.8 2.1 1.1
19 Reed Sheppard HOU 5.2 1.6 1.6
20 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.0 1.5 1.0
21 Gui Santos GS 4.5 2.5 1.4
22 Jock Landale HOU 4.1 2.2 0.6
23 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.6 2.3 0.9
24 Kevon Looney GS 3.5 3.7 0.7
25 Kevin Knox II GS 3.5 1.8 0.6
26 Jackson Rowe GS 3.4 1.9 0.7
27 Nate Williams HOU 3.1 1.3 0.7
28 Jeff Green HOU 2.8 1.6 0.5
29 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 2.8 1.6 0.7
30 Pat Spencer GS 2.5 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.