NBA games

IND @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
125–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND24373727125
DEN33333123120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home DEN
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Myles Turner S 31 24 2 1
Obi Toppin S 26 22 4 1
Andrew Nembhard S 33 19 4 6
Aaron Nesmith S 30 17 6 0
T.J. McConnell 19 12 3 6
Jarace Walker 21 11 6 1
Tyrese Haliburton S 35 9 3 14
Thomas Bryant 15 7 4 0
Bennedict Mathurin 21 4 5 4
Tony Bradley 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 39 41 15 13
Christian Braun S 39 30 8 4
Russell Westbrook 24 16 5 4
Michael Porter Jr. S 39 15 6 4
Julian Strawther 11 6 3 0
Aaron Gordon S 34 5 3 4
Jalen Pickett S 24 4 1 2
Peyton Watson 22 3 1 0
DeAndre Jordan 9 0 5 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Aaron Nesmith · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Aaron Nesmith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
21%
2 Aaron Gordon DEN
11%
3 Aaron Nesmith IND
10%
4 Myles Turner IND
9%
5 Christian Braun DEN
9%
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
7 Tyrese Haliburton IND
8%
8 DeAndre Jordan DEN
8%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
10 Peyton Watson DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
75%
Jumper
8%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 33.3 11.7 11.2
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND 20.4 4.3 11.5
3 Aaron Gordon DEN 19.4 4.9 4.0
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 18.3 6.7 3.1
5 Christian Braun DEN 17.1 5.9 3.7
6 Russell Westbrook DEN 16.6 5.4 6.7
7 Bennedict Mathurin IND 16.2 4.8 2.0
8 Myles Turner IND 16.1 7.3 1.7
9 Aaron Nesmith IND 13.1 4.2 1.4
10 Andrew Nembhard IND 11.6 4.2 4.9
11 Peyton Watson DEN 10.8 5.0 1.4
12 Obi Toppin IND 10.3 3.5 1.8
13 Julian Strawther DEN 9.2 2.4 1.4
14 T.J. McConnell IND 8.0 3.3 4.5
15 Jalen Pickett DEN 6.9 2.6 3.2
16 Jarace Walker IND 6.6 2.5 1.7
17 DeAndre Jordan DEN 5.5 6.4 1.3
18 Thomas Bryant IND 5.2 2.9 0.6
19 Zeke Nnaji DEN 4.9 2.2 0.9
20 Hunter Tyson DEN 4.6 2.0 0.7
21 Dario Saric DEN 4.4 2.9 1.5
22 Tony Bradley IND 3.8 2.2 0.6
23 Vlatko Cancar DEN 3.4 2.6 1.0
24 Trey Alexander DEN 3.0 1.4 0.7
25 Johnny Furphy IND 2.4 1.6 0.6
26 RayJ Dennis IND 2.4 1.3 0.8
27 PJ Hall DEN 2.0 1.3 0.3
28 Enrique Freeman IND 1.6 0.9 0.3
29 James Johnson IND 1.4 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.