NBA games

ORL @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
11393
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL32362025113
NO2315272893

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home NO
73% 27%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 34 34 11 4
Franz Wagner S 35 27 6 5
Cory Joseph S 30 12 6 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 32 12 3 3
Jonathan Isaac 15 8 3 1
Wendell Carter Jr. S 27 8 4 2
Anthony Black 18 6 1 2
Caleb Houstan 15 3 1 1
Tristan da Silva 17 3 2 1
Goga Bitadze 5 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 28 20 8 5
Trey Murphy III S 34 17 5 2
Jose Alvarado 25 12 2 4
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 26 11 6 3
Jordan Hawkins 24 11 0 1
CJ McCollum S 23 9 2 4
Karlo Matkovic S 26 8 6 1
Antonio Reeves 10 3 3 0
Mo Bamba 26 2 8 1
Bruce Brown S 14 0 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Karlo Matkovic · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Karlo Matkovic makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
14%
2 Trey Murphy III NO
13%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
13%
4 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
5 Yves Missi NO
10%
6 Bruce Brown NO
8%
7 Cole Anthony ORL
8%
8 CJ McCollum NO
8%
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
18%
Layup
52%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 28.0 6.5 5.0
2 Zion Williamson NO 26.4 8.0 6.2
3 Franz Wagner ORL 23.8 5.3 4.7
4 Trey Murphy III NO 21.1 5.0 3.9
5 CJ McCollum NO 19.1 4.2 4.9
6 Cole Anthony ORL 14.1 4.7 3.8
7 Jordan Hawkins NO 11.6 3.9 1.7
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 11.3 8.4 2.1
9 Yves Missi NO 10.6 7.8 1.3
10 Karlo Matkovic NO 10.1 5.9 1.4
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 9.8 2.7 1.6
12 Jose Alvarado NO 9.7 3.1 4.9
13 Anthony Black ORL 7.1 3.3 1.7
14 Bruce Brown NO 6.6 3.5 2.0
15 Mo Bamba NO 5.1 5.2 0.7
16 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.7 3.7 0.8
17 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.7 4.0 1.2
18 Tristan da Silva ORL 4.5 1.7 1.2
19 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 4.3 1.9 0.5
20 Jett Howard ORL 4.2 1.6 1.4
21 Antonio Reeves NO 4.0 1.4 0.9
22 Trevelin Queen ORL 3.3 2.0 0.8
23 Caleb Houstan ORL 3.3 1.2 0.6
24 Gary Harris ORL 3.0 1.6 0.9
25 Cory Joseph ORL 2.7 0.9 0.7
26 Jamal Cain NO 2.1 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.