NBA games

PHX @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
98–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX2320272898
NY27263425112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home NY
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 40 40 4 3
Bradley Beal S 34 16 2 2
Grayson Allen 22 15 6 1
Oso Ighodaro 23 8 3 3
Tyus Jones 20 5 4 2
Nick Richards S 25 5 2 0
Royce O'Neale S 20 5 2 3
Ryan Dunn S 34 4 8 2
Cody Martin 3 0 0 0
Collin Gillespie 18 0 4 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
OG Anunoby S 36 32 6 3
Mikal Bridges S 39 22 6 4
Karl-Anthony Towns S 36 19 13 1
Jalen Brunson S 34 15 2 6
Miles McBride 16 8 0 2
Josh Hart S 38 7 10 5
Landry Shamet 14 5 1 0
Cameron Payne 14 2 1 6
Mitchell Robinson 13 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Karl-Anthony Towns · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:43 Q1
"Karl-Anthony Towns makes 2-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
11%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
10%
3 OG Anunoby NY
9%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
5 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
6 Bradley Beal PHX
8%
7 Ryan Dunn PHX
7%
8 Mitchell Robinson NY
7%
9 Oso Ighodaro PHX
7%
10 Miles McBride NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
54%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 26.1 4.1 7.6
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 25.0 10.6 4.2
3 OG Anunoby NY 24.2 4.8 3.0
4 Jalen Brunson NY 24.1 3.6 6.8
5 Mikal Bridges NY 20.9 3.8 5.7
6 Bradley Beal PHX 15.5 3.5 4.0
7 Josh Hart NY 13.5 7.3 6.6
8 Tyus Jones PHX 9.7 2.5 3.2
9 Miles McBride NY 9.4 2.5 4.2
10 Nick Richards PHX 8.9 6.8 1.1
11 Ryan Dunn PHX 8.8 4.3 0.9
12 Collin Gillespie PHX 8.7 3.3 3.2
13 Grayson Allen PHX 8.2 2.0 1.8
14 Landry Shamet NY 8.2 2.0 1.3
15 Royce O'Neale PHX 7.9 4.3 1.7
16 Cameron Payne NY 7.4 2.2 3.4
17 Oso Ighodaro PHX 6.7 5.3 1.6
18 Delon Wright NY 6.5 2.3 2.2
19 Vasilije Micic PHX 6.0 2.0 2.2
20 Precious Achiuwa NY 5.8 3.9 0.9
21 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.4 5.5 0.8
22 Cody Martin PHX 5.3 3.8 1.2
23 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.2 6.5 0.8
24 Bol Bol PHX 4.6 2.1 0.7
25 Damion Lee PHX 3.9 1.2 0.6
26 Monte Morris PHX 3.3 0.9 0.7
27 Tyler Kolek NY 3.3 1.1 4.3
28 Anton Watson NY 1.8 0.9 0.5
29 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.6 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.