NBA games

SA @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
109–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA18273034109
POR33213234120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home POR
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephon Castle S 31 22 7 5
Devin Vassell S 32 21 7 2
Malaki Branham 23 17 4 2
Harrison Barnes S 33 17 7 1
Bismack Biyombo S 20 10 4 0
Chris Paul S 29 8 3 9
Julian Champagnie 20 7 3 0
Jordan McLaughlin 10 5 2 3
Keldon Johnson 21 2 5 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 13 0 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Toumani Camara S 34 23 10 3
Shaedon Sharpe S 34 21 10 6
Dalano Banton S 32 20 2 6
Kris Murray 33 18 5 4
Donovan Clingan S 27 10 8 0
Jabari Walker 21 10 4 0
Rayan Rupert 24 7 1 3
Matisse Thybulle S 21 6 4 2
Justin Minaya 14 5 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Shaedon Sharpe · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Shaedon Sharpe makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dalano Banton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR
15%
2 Stephon Castle SA
9%
3 Harrison Barnes SA
9%
4 Deni Avdija POR
8%
5 Jerami Grant POR
7%
6 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
7 Anfernee Simons POR
7%
8 Toumani Camara POR
7%
9 Bismack Biyombo SA
7%
10 Matisse Thybulle POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
37%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 27.0 10.7 6.7
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 23.7 6.0 4.1
3 Anfernee Simons POR 21.2 2.9 4.3
4 Stephon Castle SA 20.5 6.2 6.6
5 Devin Vassell SA 17.8 4.8 3.0
6 Toumani Camara POR 14.8 4.5 2.9
7 Scoot Henderson POR 13.8 3.1 4.7
8 Harrison Barnes SA 13.7 3.1 2.0
9 Keldon Johnson SA 12.9 5.7 2.4
10 Jerami Grant POR 12.0 3.5 2.2
11 Julian Champagnie SA 11.0 4.2 1.6
12 Chris Paul SA 10.9 3.8 5.6
13 Dalano Banton POR 9.1 3.0 2.7
14 Donovan Clingan POR 8.8 9.8 1.6
15 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 8.7 4.5 1.3
16 Duop Reath POR 8.5 3.8 1.3
17 Matisse Thybulle POR 7.1 3.5 1.8
18 Blake Wesley SA 6.7 2.2 1.8
19 Bismack Biyombo SA 6.0 5.8 1.3
20 Jabari Walker POR 5.3 3.5 0.9
21 Kris Murray POR 4.7 3.3 1.1
22 Charles Bassey SA 4.1 4.0 0.6
23 Malaki Branham SA 4.0 1.1 0.8
24 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.9 1.2 1.2
25 Rayan Rupert POR 2.9 1.5 0.7
26 Justin Minaya POR 2.7 1.3 0.6
27 Sidy Cissoko POR 1.9 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.