NBA games

SAC @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
120–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC31253529120
CLE27302234113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home CLE
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 42 37 2 1
DeMar DeRozan S 40 28 4 7
Domantas Sabonis S 40 27 9 7
Keon Ellis S 40 11 3 3
Malik Monk 20 8 7 3
Trey Lyles S 40 7 8 1
Jonas Valanciunas 5 2 2 1
Isaac Jones 6 0 2 1
Devin Carter 7 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ty Jerome 23 20 4 2
Donovan Mitchell S 33 19 6 6
Jarrett Allen S 31 17 5 4
Evan Mobley S 33 16 9 4
Max Strus S 29 11 6 7
De'Andre Hunter 22 11 2 0
Darius Garland S 32 9 3 7
Isaac Okoro 18 7 2 1
Dean Wade 3 3 0 0
Sam Merrill 16 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Trey Lyles · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Trey Lyles makes 23-foot three point shot (DeMar DeRozan assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
17%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
12%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
4 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
5 Darius Garland CLE
10%
6 DeMar DeRozan SAC
10%
7 Zach LaVine SAC
10%
8 Max Strus CLE
7%
9 Keon Ellis SAC
6%
10 Chuma Okeke CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
40%
Jumper
20%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.2 5.6 6.5
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC 23.6 4.1 6.1
3 Darius Garland CLE 20.1 4.6 6.6
4 Zach LaVine SAC 20.0 4.0 4.0
5 Malik Monk SAC 19.8 4.3 5.4
6 Evan Mobley CLE 19.7 9.0 3.7
7 Domantas Sabonis SAC 16.2 11.1 5.0
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 14.6 7.7 1.8
9 De'Andre Hunter CLE 12.9 3.7 1.5
10 Ty Jerome CLE 12.1 2.3 2.8
11 Max Strus CLE 10.9 3.8 2.6
12 Keon Ellis SAC 9.7 3.6 2.5
13 Trey Lyles SAC 7.1 4.2 1.5
14 Isaac Okoro CLE 7.0 2.3 1.2
15 Sam Merrill CLE 6.7 3.0 1.9
16 Jonas Valanciunas SAC 6.4 5.6 1.1
17 Dean Wade CLE 5.0 2.7 0.7
18 Chuma Okeke CLE 4.4 3.1 1.1
19 Jae Crowder SAC 3.9 2.3 0.8
20 Markelle Fultz SAC 3.9 1.6 1.3
21 Isaac Jones SAC 3.7 1.7 0.6
22 Devin Carter SAC 3.7 1.8 1.0
23 Doug McDermott SAC 3.7 1.2 0.6
24 Javonte Green CLE 3.6 2.2 0.7
25 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.3 1.5 0.9
26 Jaylon Tyson CLE 3.1 1.2 0.9
27 Tristan Thompson CLE 1.4 1.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.