NBA games

WSH @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
90–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH1821292290
BOS34264024124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home BOS
12% 88%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alex Sarr S 32 16 4 2
Justin Champagnie S 37 15 13 1
Jordan Poole S 26 15 2 5
Bub Carrington S 41 14 3 6
AJ Johnson S 34 12 0 4
Colby Jones 26 9 3 2
Anthony Gill 22 6 5 1
JT Thor 22 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Payton Pritchard 30 20 6 7
Derrick White S 26 19 1 4
Sam Hauser 22 18 8 0
Jaylen Brown S 22 15 2 5
Jrue Holiday S 30 13 7 5
Luke Kornet S 26 13 14 3
Al Horford S 28 11 10 4
Baylor Scheierman 21 6 4 2
Neemias Queta 7 6 0 1
Torrey Craig 16 3 8 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derrick White · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Derrick White makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
2 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
11%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
4 Alex Sarr WSH
9%
5 Derrick White BOS
8%
6 Kyshawn George WSH
8%
7 Bub Carrington WSH
7%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
9 AJ Johnson WSH
7%
10 Marcus Smart WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
40%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.9 7.9 7.3
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 21.9 5.8 4.4
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 20.8 7.0 2.9
4 Jordan Poole WSH 16.9 2.4 3.6
5 Derrick White BOS 16.4 5.7 6.6
6 Alex Sarr WSH 16.3 5.9 2.2
7 Jrue Holiday BOS 13.8 4.5 5.2
8 Payton Pritchard BOS 13.6 4.2 2.9
9 Al Horford BOS 13.4 7.7 3.7
10 AJ Johnson WSH 12.8 3.2 3.4
11 Bub Carrington WSH 12.1 4.7 4.9
12 Kyshawn George WSH 10.6 4.1 2.4
13 Sam Hauser BOS 10.5 3.3 1.4
14 Malcolm Brogdon WSH 9.8 3.2 4.2
15 Luke Kornet BOS 9.2 7.0 1.4
16 Justin Champagnie WSH 8.4 5.6 1.3
17 Marcus Smart WSH 8.3 2.4 2.6
18 Colby Jones WSH 7.9 3.1 1.8
19 Richaun Holmes WSH 7.3 6.0 1.2
20 Baylor Scheierman BOS 5.8 2.4 1.3
21 Anthony Gill WSH 5.3 2.3 0.9
22 Neemias Queta BOS 5.1 4.3 1.0
23 Torrey Craig BOS 3.6 2.1 0.7
24 JT Thor WSH 3.5 2.6 0.6
25 Jordan Walsh BOS 3.1 2.0 0.8
26 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.9 1.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.