NBA games

UTAH @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
134–147
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH28364327134
ATL41403828147

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home ATL
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keyonte George 34 35 4 1
Collin Sexton S 37 27 5 6
Isaiah Collier S 35 17 3 12
Johnny Juzang S 35 15 2 2
Brice Sensabaugh S 29 15 4 2
Kyle Filipowski S 24 9 9 2
Jaden Springer 16 9 1 1
Svi Mykhailiuk 19 7 2 3
Micah Potter 10 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Onyeka Okongwu S 37 27 12 3
Trae Young S 37 23 5 15
Caris LeVert 28 21 5 6
Dyson Daniels S 36 19 6 6
Vit Krejci 24 17 3 5
Zaccharie Risacher S 22 16 2 2
Terance Mann 26 10 5 1
Mouhamed Gueye 10 8 3 1
Georges Niang S 19 6 1 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Collin Sexton · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Collin Sexton makes 15-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
12%
2 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
11%
3 Dyson Daniels ATL
11%
4 Collin Sexton UTAH
11%
5 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
10%
6 Isaiah Collier UTAH
8%
7 Walker Kessler UTAH
8%
8 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
8%
9 Johnny Juzang UTAH
7%
10 Mouhamed Gueye ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
29%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 27.2 3.2 13.4
2 Collin Sexton UTAH 20.4 2.8 4.1
3 Dyson Daniels ATL 19.5 7.4 5.8
4 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 17.6 10.8 3.2
5 Keyonte George UTAH 17.0 3.8 4.3
6 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 16.6 4.0 2.0
7 Isaiah Collier UTAH 15.1 4.1 6.2
8 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 13.8 7.8 1.9
9 Caris LeVert ATL 12.4 3.8 3.0
10 Georges Niang ATL 11.1 2.5 1.8
11 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 11.0 3.7 1.8
12 Walker Kessler UTAH 10.2 9.8 2.0
13 Terance Mann ATL 10.1 3.3 1.6
14 Johnny Juzang UTAH 10.0 3.0 1.5
15 Vit Krejci ATL 7.7 3.1 2.0
16 Micah Potter UTAH 6.4 5.2 1.2
17 Dominick Barlow ATL 6.0 4.2 1.2
18 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 5.7 2.0 1.9
19 KJ Martin UTAH 5.7 2.4 1.7
20 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 5.7 4.1 1.1
21 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 5.1 6.7 0.6
22 Daeqwon Plowden ATL 5.0 2.2 0.8
23 Jaden Springer UTAH 4.8 2.1 1.3
24 Keaton Wallace ATL 4.8 1.7 2.2
25 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.3 1.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.