NBA games

LAL @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
126–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL42362523126
OKC3224212299

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home OKC
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 37 30 7 6
Austin Reaves S 34 20 2 3
LeBron James S 34 19 3 7
Dorian Finney-Smith 30 14 7 2
Gabe Vincent 26 12 3 3
Rui Hachimura S 32 11 7 1
Jaxson Hayes S 13 7 5 0
Jordan Goodwin 9 4 5 2
Jarred Vanderbilt 15 3 2 1
Bronny James 2 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 30 26 3 9
Jalen Williams S 28 16 6 3
Chet Holmgren S 25 10 3 1
Luguentz Dort S 27 9 2 1
Cason Wallace 28 8 1 0
Isaiah Hartenstein S 25 8 6 0
Alex Caruso 17 7 3 2
Isaiah Joe 20 6 0 2
Kenrich Williams 12 5 0 0
Aaron Wiggins 21 4 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaiah Hartenstein · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Isaiah Hartenstein makes 6-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
13%
2 Austin Reaves LAL
12%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
4 LeBron James LAL
11%
5 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
7 Jaxson Hayes LAL
9%
8 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
8%
9 Rui Hachimura LAL
6%
10 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
55%
Jumper
12%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.4 4.3 7.7
2 Luka Doncic LAL 27.4 7.2 8.1
3 Jalen Williams OKC 24.8 4.9 5.8
4 Austin Reaves LAL 24.5 4.7 5.3
5 LeBron James LAL 24.0 7.1 7.3
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.5 7.6 2.3
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 13.7 9.2 4.1
8 Isaiah Joe OKC 12.8 3.2 1.9
9 Aaron Wiggins OKC 12.7 3.9 2.1
10 Cason Wallace OKC 12.6 3.8 3.2
11 Luguentz Dort OKC 12.1 4.4 1.8
12 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.0 3.9 1.4
13 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 9.6 3.6 1.6
14 Alex Caruso OKC 8.6 3.5 2.3
15 Gabe Vincent LAL 8.0 2.0 1.1
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 7.4 3.6 2.1
17 Jaxson Hayes LAL 7.1 5.3 1.0
18 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.3 5.3 1.8
19 Dalton Knecht LAL 6.1 1.6 1.1
20 Jordan Goodwin LAL 4.8 2.8 1.4
21 Shake Milton LAL 4.5 1.7 1.1
22 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.0 3.5 0.9
23 Dillon Jones OKC 3.8 2.0 1.4
24 Bronny James LAL 2.9 0.7 0.7
25 Markieff Morris LAL 2.8 1.0 0.9
26 Christian Koloko LAL 2.3 2.1 0.6
27 Alex Len LAL 1.6 2.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.