NBA games

CHI @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
131–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI29462036131
CHA28272636117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home CHA
90% 10%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 35 37 2 5
Josh Giddey S 34 23 10 8
Nikola Vucevic S 33 16 11 4
Patrick Williams 27 15 3 0
Kevin Huerter S 29 13 1 3
Matas Buzelis S 24 10 4 1
Talen Horton-Tucker 14 5 1 1
Zach Collins 15 4 8 2
Emanuel Miller 1 4 0 0
Julian Phillips 11 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mark Williams S 31 22 9 2
Jusuf Nurkic 16 18 3 0
KJ Simpson S 32 18 3 7
Seth Curry S 18 10 1 2
Nick Smith Jr. 22 8 2 4
Miles Bridges S 19 8 4 2
Moussa Diabate 23 8 7 0
Josh Okogie S 17 7 1 2
Tidjane Salaun 26 6 6 3
Jaylen Sims 12 6 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Miles Bridges · Layup (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Miles Bridges makes 1-foot layup (Mark Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
14%
2 Mark Williams CHA
12%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
4 Josh Giddey CHI
10%
5 Matas Buzelis CHI
10%
6 Coby White CHI
9%
7 Kevin Huerter CHI
8%
8 KJ Simpson CHA
7%
9 Jusuf Nurkic CHA
7%
10 Seth Curry CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
34%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Coby White CHI 26.8 4.0 5.1
2 Josh Giddey CHI 22.8 10.2 9.8
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.6 9.6 4.1
4 Miles Bridges CHA 18.5 6.1 4.6
5 Mark Williams CHA 16.4 11.0 3.6
6 Kevin Huerter CHI 15.2 3.7 3.7
7 Matas Buzelis CHI 14.5 5.4 1.8
8 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 14.1 2.7 3.5
9 KJ Simpson CHA 11.5 3.5 4.1
10 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 11.2 3.3 1.6
11 Tidjane Salaun CHA 9.5 5.8 2.0
12 Jusuf Nurkic CHA 8.6 5.8 2.4
13 Seth Curry CHA 8.4 2.2 1.8
14 Josh Okogie CHA 8.0 3.0 1.6
15 Patrick Williams CHI 7.8 3.3 1.9
16 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 7.7 1.8 1.3
17 Dalen Terry CHI 7.0 3.1 1.9
18 Moussa Diabate CHA 6.8 4.8 0.9
19 Zach Collins CHI 6.1 4.1 1.7
20 Jalen Smith CHI 5.9 5.5 1.1
21 Julian Phillips CHI 4.5 1.8 0.8
22 Jevon Carter CHI 4.2 1.0 1.4
23 Taj Gibson CHA 3.8 3.0 0.8
24 Jahmir Young CHI 2.9 0.9 0.9
25 Emanuel Miller CHI 2.8 1.2 0.4
26 E.J. Liddell CHI 2.7 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.