NBA games

DAL @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
104–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL21313022104
LAC33284430135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home LAC
15% 85%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 27 27 9 0
Kai Jones 21 18 7 0
Klay Thompson S 25 14 1 0
P.J. Washington S 30 12 5 1
Naji Marshall 33 9 2 1
Spencer Dinwiddie S 33 8 6 9
Caleb Martin 26 7 5 5
Max Christie 22 7 2 2
Dereck Lively II S 15 2 3 0
Dwight Powell 7 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 31 29 7 14
Kawhi Leonard S 25 29 6 3
Ivica Zubac S 28 25 10 2
Norman Powell S 29 9 1 0
Bogdan Bogdanovic 22 7 4 3
Derrick Jones Jr. 17 7 4 1
Nicolas Batum 18 6 5 0
Patty Mills 7 5 1 1
Drew Eubanks 7 4 1 1
Jordan Miller 7 4 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
James Harden · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"James Harden makes 4-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Naji Marshall DAL
11%
2 Anthony Davis DAL
11%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
10%
4 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
5 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL
8%
6 Norman Powell LAC
8%
7 Daniel Gafford DAL
8%
8 Dereck Lively II DAL
8%
9 James Harden LAC
8%
10 Kawhi Leonard LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
24%
Layup
46%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 24.9 6.9 4.0
2 James Harden LAC 24.1 4.9 7.7
3 Anthony Davis DAL 22.7 10.1 3.3
4 Ivica Zubac LAC 19.2 11.2 3.6
5 Naji Marshall DAL 19.0 6.2 3.9
6 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 17.3 3.9 8.0
7 P.J. Washington DAL 16.8 6.1 2.3
8 Norman Powell LAC 15.1 2.6 2.2
9 Daniel Gafford DAL 11.6 7.9 1.8
10 Klay Thompson DAL 11.3 3.4 1.7
11 Max Christie DAL 10.6 4.1 1.6
12 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 10.3 3.2 3.6
13 Kai Jones DAL 10.1 6.2 1.3
14 Jaden Hardy DAL 9.8 2.0 1.7
15 Dereck Lively II DAL 9.1 7.2 2.2
16 Kris Dunn LAC 8.5 3.7 1.6
17 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 8.5 3.4 1.2
18 Caleb Martin DAL 5.1 2.6 1.4
19 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.5 2.7 1.1
20 Dwight Powell DAL 4.1 2.3 1.5
21 Patty Mills LAC 3.7 1.1 0.7
22 Drew Eubanks LAC 3.5 2.8 0.7
23 Ben Simmons LAC 3.5 3.4 2.3
24 Patrick Baldwin Jr. LAC 3.5 1.7 0.7
25 Cam Christie LAC 2.8 1.4 0.7
26 Kobe Brown LAC 2.6 1.4 0.9
27 Jordan Miller LAC 1.6 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.