NBA games

MIL @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
121–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
MIL2235243010121
MIA302731234115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home MIA
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 43 36 15 10
Kevin Porter Jr. 40 24 12 8
Brook Lopez S 30 17 5 0
AJ Green 34 10 3 2
Kyle Kuzma S 26 9 2 2
Pat Connaughton 15 9 2 2
Taurean Prince S 38 9 5 2
Ryan Rollins S 14 5 1 2
Gary Trent Jr. 23 2 1 1
Andre Jackson Jr. 3 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 43 31 12 5
Alec Burks S 35 24 5 2
Davion Mitchell 39 20 2 5
Duncan Robinson S 31 16 2 3
Kyle Anderson 32 12 14 3
Kel'el Ware S 19 7 6 1
Pelle Larsson S 39 3 4 3
Haywood Highsmith 23 2 6 2
Terry Rozier 4 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 18-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
33%
2 Brook Lopez MIL
8%
3 Bam Adebayo MIA
8%
4 Kyle Kuzma MIL
8%
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA
8%
6 Tyler Herro MIA
7%
7 Kel'el Ware MIA
7%
8 Pelle Larsson MIA
5%
9 Taurean Prince MIL
5%
10 Ryan Rollins MIL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
68%
Jumper
5%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 30.4 10.7 7.6
2 Tyler Herro MIA 25.2 4.6 5.4
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.3 7.7 5.2
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA 21.4 4.1 3.9
5 Kyle Kuzma MIL 16.6 4.9 3.4
6 Brook Lopez MIL 15.9 5.2 2.3
7 Kel'el Ware MIA 12.6 10.4 1.3
8 Davion Mitchell MIA 12.6 3.4 5.8
9 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 11.2 2.4 1.4
10 Ryan Rollins MIL 10.2 3.0 2.9
11 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 9.8 3.5 3.3
12 Taurean Prince MIL 9.2 2.9 1.6
13 Kyle Anderson MIA 9.2 3.5 2.7
14 Duncan Robinson MIA 8.9 2.1 1.6
15 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.6 4.1 2.0
16 Terry Rozier MIA 7.3 2.6 1.9
17 Alec Burks MIA 7.1 2.2 1.2
18 Pelle Larsson MIA 6.5 2.7 1.8
19 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 6.0 3.3 2.3
20 AJ Green MIL 5.9 2.2 1.7
21 Pat Connaughton MIL 3.7 2.1 1.2
22 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.2 1.6 0.6
23 Tyler Smith MIL 2.8 1.2 0.6
24 Chris Livingston MIL 2.5 1.6 0.4
25 Isaiah Stevens MIA 2.2 1.2 1.5
26 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.2 1.8 0.6
27 Josh Christopher MIA 2.1 1.0 0.7
28 Stanley Umude MIL 0.9 0.7 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.