NBA games

MIN @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
114–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN27282831114
PHI23283127109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home PHI
69% 31%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 38 37 2 2
Rudy Gobert S 36 23 19 2
Julius Randle S 33 15 5 4
Donte DiVincenzo 19 13 4 1
Naz Reid 27 9 7 2
Mike Conley S 25 8 4 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 27 7 2 5
Jaden McDaniels S 26 2 3 1
Jaylen Clark 10 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Quentin Grimes S 36 28 3 2
Guerschon Yabusele S 37 19 4 4
Lonnie Walker IV 38 18 3 5
Jared Butler S 32 16 1 8
Jalen Hood-Schifino 22 7 1 2
Colin Castleton 15 6 6 2
Marcus Bagley 21 6 5 1
Justin Edwards S 11 5 1 0
Adem Bona S 24 4 10 2
Ricky Council IV 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Guerschon Yabusele · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Guerschon Yabusele makes 15-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
10%
2 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
3 Julius Randle MIN
9%
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
9%
5 Justin Edwards PHI
8%
6 Adem Bona PHI
8%
7 Quentin Grimes PHI
8%
8 Guerschon Yabusele PHI
7%
9 Andre Drummond PHI
7%
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
22%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 28.2 4.8 5.8
2 Quentin Grimes PHI 25.8 4.1 6.2
3 Julius Randle MIN 21.4 6.2 5.7
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 17.4 3.3 1.9
5 Justin Edwards PHI 16.0 4.2 2.7
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 15.4 14.2 2.1
7 Jared Butler PHI 13.3 2.4 5.1
8 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 13.1 6.2 2.7
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 13.0 4.6 3.7
10 Adem Bona PHI 13.0 8.1 1.5
11 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.9 6.2 2.2
12 Naz Reid MIN 12.4 5.2 3.1
13 Lonnie Walker IV PHI 12.2 3.6 3.4
14 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 12.0 4.1 4.1
15 Ricky Council IV PHI 11.8 5.0 2.2
16 Mike Conley MIN 11.0 2.6 5.0
17 Jalen Hood-Schifino PHI 8.6 2.0 2.3
18 Colin Castleton PHI 7.9 6.5 1.6
19 Andre Drummond PHI 6.9 6.5 1.0
20 Jaylen Clark MIN 5.9 2.2 1.3
21 Luka Garza MIN 5.6 1.8 1.0
22 Bones Hyland MIN 5.4 1.8 1.6
23 Josh Minott MIN 4.8 1.9 1.0
24 Marcus Bagley PHI 4.6 4.7 0.6
25 Rob Dillingham MIN 3.9 1.5 1.1
26 Leonard Miller MIN 3.8 2.2 1.0
27 Joe Ingles MIN 2.9 1.0 1.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.