NBA games

MEM @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
109–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM27192934109
DET24233026103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home DET
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 38 38 7 3
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 35 27 11 2
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 29 15 6 3
Santi Aldama 24 9 5 2
Jaylen Wells S 38 7 3 1
Zach Edey S 29 6 21 6
Luke Kennard 23 4 7 2
Cam Spencer 5 3 0 0
GG Jackson 11 0 4 0
Jay Huff 6 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 28 25 9 4
Ausar Thompson S 31 18 11 5
Isaiah Stewart S 34 16 8 4
Malik Beasley 33 11 3 0
Dennis Schroder S 30 10 2 4
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 32 9 3 3
Marcus Sasser 15 7 1 2
Ronald Holland II 10 3 0 0
Paul Reed 11 2 3 2
Simone Fontecchio 16 2 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Jaren Jackson Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
16%
2 Ja Morant MEM
15%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
4 Desmond Bane MEM
9%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
9%
7 Zach Edey MEM
8%
8 Dennis Schroder DET
8%
9 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
10 Malik Beasley DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
85%
Jumper
6%
Layup
6%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Ja Morant MEM 30.3 4.5 6.9
2 Cade Cunningham DET 29.0 6.6 9.8
3 Desmond Bane MEM 21.1 5.2 5.5
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 20.6 5.2 2.0
5 Malik Beasley DET 15.9 2.9 2.4
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 14.7 2.9 1.7
7 Dennis Schroder DET 14.4 3.2 6.5
8 Santi Aldama MEM 14.0 5.6 3.8
9 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 13.5 4.0 5.7
10 Ausar Thompson DET 12.5 6.0 2.5
11 Jaylen Wells MEM 9.8 3.6 1.7
12 Zach Edey MEM 9.4 7.7 1.3
13 Ronald Holland II DET 8.8 3.7 2.0
14 Luke Kennard MEM 7.7 2.5 3.2
15 Marcus Sasser DET 7.7 1.8 1.9
16 Simone Fontecchio DET 6.3 2.4 1.0
17 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.8 4.8 1.4
18 Jay Huff MEM 4.3 2.0 0.5
19 GG Jackson MEM 4.2 2.3 1.0
20 Paul Reed DET 4.2 3.2 1.0
21 Lamar Stevens MEM 3.8 2.5 0.7
22 Lindy Waters III DET 3.8 1.5 1.0
23 Cam Spencer MEM 3.1 0.9 0.7
24 Daniss Jenkins DET 3.0 1.3 0.7
25 Tolu Smith DET 2.9 2.1 0.8
26 Marvin Bagley III MEM 2.7 2.2 0.4
27 Yuki Kawamura MEM 2.7 1.1 0.8
28 John Konchar MEM 2.3 2.5 0.6
29 Bobi Klintman DET 1.6 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.