NBA games

NY @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
121–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY38403013121
ATL31222725105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home ATL
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 33 30 11 3
OG Anunoby S 35 24 4 4
Mikal Bridges S 33 20 3 5
Josh Hart S 32 16 9 11
Landry Shamet 30 12 4 2
Delon Wright S 29 10 1 2
Precious Achiuwa 25 6 3 0
Cameron Payne 21 3 3 5
Kevin McCullar Jr. 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 32 16 1 9
Terance Mann 21 14 6 1
Caris LeVert 20 14 4 3
Georges Niang 25 13 4 1
Zaccharie Risacher S 26 12 4 1
Dyson Daniels S 27 12 2 1
Vit Krejci 19 8 3 1
Onyeka Okongwu S 27 6 5 2
Mouhamed Gueye S 17 6 3 1
Keaton Wallace 6 2 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Trae Young · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Trae Young makes 25-foot three pointer (Onyeka Okongwu assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
10%
2 Trae Young ATL
10%
3 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
9%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
5 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
6 Mikal Bridges NY
8%
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
8 OG Anunoby NY
8%
9 Josh Hart NY
6%
10 Mouhamed Gueye ATL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
49%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 27.0 3.4 10.4
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 24.6 10.4 3.8
3 Jalen Brunson NY 24.3 3.6 6.4
4 OG Anunoby NY 23.3 4.7 2.9
5 Mikal Bridges NY 22.2 3.6 5.3
6 Dyson Daniels ATL 17.4 7.5 5.3
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 16.4 10.1 2.6
8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 15.4 4.2 1.7
9 Josh Hart NY 13.1 7.7 6.3
10 Caris LeVert ATL 12.9 3.7 2.6
11 Terance Mann ATL 9.1 2.8 1.5
12 Georges Niang ATL 8.6 2.0 1.4
13 Landry Shamet NY 7.9 1.9 1.0
14 Vit Krejci ATL 6.5 2.8 1.9
15 Cameron Payne NY 5.8 1.5 2.5
16 Delon Wright NY 5.4 1.9 2.0
17 Precious Achiuwa NY 5.4 3.8 0.8
18 Dominick Barlow ATL 5.4 3.9 0.9
19 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.9 3.6 0.8
20 Tyler Kolek NY 4.0 1.5 4.2
21 Daeqwon Plowden ATL 4.0 1.8 0.5
22 MarJon Beauchamp NY 3.7 1.6 0.7
23 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.5 1.4 0.4
24 Keaton Wallace ATL 3.0 0.8 1.3
25 Anton Watson NY 2.5 1.2 0.6
26 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.6 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.