NBA games

DAL @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
91–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL1619253191
LAC29292333114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home LAC
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Naji Marshall S 36 22 4 4
Spencer Dinwiddie S 29 18 3 4
Jaden Hardy 29 16 5 5
Max Christie 34 11 6 1
Kai Jones 22 9 3 2
P.J. Washington S 28 9 10 2
Daniel Gafford S 19 4 5 0
Klay Thompson S 13 2 0 0
Dwight Powell 12 0 2 1
Caleb Martin 18 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 24 20 6 2
Norman Powell S 30 14 1 2
Ivica Zubac S 27 14 13 2
James Harden S 30 13 4 5
Drew Eubanks 18 12 7 2
Bogdan Bogdanovic 21 12 4 6
Kris Dunn S 24 9 6 0
Derrick Jones Jr. 23 8 1 0
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 3 6 2 0
Patty Mills 8 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Klay Thompson · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:05 Q1
"Klay Thompson makes 22-foot pullup jump shot (Naji Marshall assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
12%
2 James Harden LAC
11%
3 Naji Marshall DAL
11%
4 Anthony Davis DAL
11%
5 Kawhi Leonard LAC
10%
6 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
7 Norman Powell LAC
8%
8 Dereck Lively II DAL
8%
9 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL
7%
10 Klay Thompson DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
31%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
23%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 25.5 7.0 4.0
2 James Harden LAC 24.9 5.1 7.7
3 Anthony Davis DAL 22.8 10.2 3.3
4 Ivica Zubac LAC 19.8 11.5 3.6
5 Naji Marshall DAL 19.1 6.3 3.6
6 P.J. Washington DAL 18.6 6.0 2.6
7 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 17.1 4.0 7.8
8 Norman Powell LAC 14.0 2.5 2.2
9 Daniel Gafford DAL 12.6 8.7 2.0
10 Klay Thompson DAL 12.3 3.7 2.3
11 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 10.6 3.1 3.4
12 Max Christie DAL 9.8 3.9 1.5
13 Dereck Lively II DAL 9.3 7.3 2.2
14 Jaden Hardy DAL 9.2 1.7 1.6
15 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.0 3.6 1.2
16 Kai Jones DAL 8.7 6.1 1.1
17 Kris Dunn LAC 7.8 3.5 1.9
18 Caleb Martin DAL 6.0 2.8 1.7
19 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.1 3.1 1.2
20 Trentyn Flowers LAC 4.0 1.7 0.6
21 Dwight Powell DAL 3.7 2.4 1.3
22 Drew Eubanks LAC 3.0 2.1 0.6
23 Patrick Baldwin Jr. LAC 3.0 1.4 0.7
24 Patty Mills LAC 2.7 0.6 0.5
25 Cam Christie LAC 2.5 1.2 0.7
26 Kobe Brown LAC 2.4 1.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.