NBA games

NO @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
108–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO30233124108
LAL25373131124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home LAL
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jose Alvarado S 28 27 4 5
Karlo Matkovic 21 15 6 2
Yves Missi S 28 13 11 2
Kelly Olynyk S 22 12 3 2
Jamal Cain 27 11 1 1
Antonio Reeves 23 10 0 0
Keion Brooks Jr. S 25 9 4 1
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 18 8 3 0
Elfrid Payton 20 2 0 12
Bruce Brown S 26 1 6 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 36 35 6 6
Austin Reaves S 36 30 3 7
LeBron James S 33 27 0 8
Dalton Knecht 20 12 1 0
Jaxson Hayes S 24 6 12 0
Gabe Vincent 19 5 3 1
Dorian Finney-Smith S 32 5 2 2
Jarred Vanderbilt 17 2 3 0
Jordan Goodwin 18 2 5 2
Shake Milton 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LeBron James · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"LeBron James makes 26-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LeBron James LAL
18%
2 Luka Doncic LAL
15%
3 Yves Missi NO
11%
4 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
5 Jaxson Hayes LAL
10%
6 Jose Alvarado NO
9%
7 Kelly Olynyk NO
9%
8 Bruce Brown NO
8%
9 Antonio Reeves NO
7%
10 Keion Brooks Jr. NO
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
27%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 28.2 7.5 8.5
2 Austin Reaves LAL 25.4 4.7 5.7
3 LeBron James LAL 24.8 7.6 7.6
4 Kelly Olynyk NO 12.9 5.1 4.3
5 Bruce Brown NO 12.4 4.5 2.7
6 Yves Missi NO 11.2 9.2 1.8
7 Jose Alvarado NO 11.2 2.8 5.4
8 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 10.3 4.0 1.8
9 Karlo Matkovic NO 9.8 6.0 1.6
10 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 9.0 4.1 1.9
11 Gabe Vincent LAL 8.5 2.0 1.2
12 Jaxson Hayes LAL 7.9 5.0 1.3
13 Antonio Reeves NO 7.8 1.8 1.2
14 Keion Brooks Jr. NO 6.2 2.8 1.0
15 Jordan Goodwin LAL 5.9 2.9 1.5
16 Elfrid Payton NO 5.4 3.2 5.0
17 Dalton Knecht LAL 4.7 1.5 0.9
18 Lester Quinones NO 4.4 1.7 0.8
19 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.2 3.6 0.9
20 Jamal Cain NO 3.9 1.4 0.8
21 Kylor Kelley NO 3.6 2.4 0.6
22 Shake Milton LAL 3.3 1.3 0.8
23 Markieff Morris LAL 3.1 1.0 0.9
24 Trey Jemison III LAL 2.8 2.2 0.3
25 Alex Len LAL 1.9 2.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.