NBA games

DEN @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
104–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN44162420104
GS34323022118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home GS
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 37 33 12 9
Michael Porter Jr. S 41 23 9 2
Christian Braun S 38 16 7 4
Aaron Gordon S 34 15 2 8
Jalen Pickett 24 8 1 3
Russell Westbrook 20 5 4 2
Peyton Watson S 33 4 3 0
Julian Strawther 1 0 0 0
Trey Alexander 1 0 0 0
Vlatko Cancar 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 32 36 2 5
Brandin Podziemski S 36 26 8 6
Jimmy Butler III S 34 19 3 5
Moses Moody S 25 8 3 0
Draymond Green S 30 8 3 3
Kevon Looney 18 7 7 2
Jonathan Kuminga 18 6 1 1
Buddy Hield 17 5 2 0
Quinten Post 13 3 4 0
Gary Payton II 2 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Moses Moody · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:49 Q1
"Moses Moody makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III GS
8%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
8%
3 Stephen Curry GS
7%
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
7%
5 Draymond Green GS
7%
6 Christian Braun DEN
7%
7 Aaron Gordon DEN
7%
8 Russell Westbrook DEN
6%
9 Moses Moody GS
6%
10 DeAndre Jordan DEN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
25%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.2 11.6 10.0
2 Stephen Curry GS 25.1 4.3 5.9
3 Jimmy Butler III GS 20.0 6.5 6.7
4 Aaron Gordon DEN 18.8 4.8 3.6
5 Russell Westbrook DEN 18.0 5.2 7.6
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 17.3 6.6 2.7
7 Brandin Podziemski GS 15.8 4.8 2.9
8 Christian Braun DEN 15.4 5.5 3.3
9 Jonathan Kuminga GS 13.4 4.0 2.8
10 Moses Moody GS 12.0 3.0 2.2
11 Draymond Green GS 11.2 6.8 5.3
12 Peyton Watson DEN 10.4 4.6 1.4
13 Julian Strawther DEN 9.9 2.7 1.7
14 Gary Payton II GS 9.5 3.4 1.2
15 Quinten Post GS 8.2 3.0 1.6
16 Buddy Hield GS 8.2 3.0 1.5
17 Jalen Pickett DEN 6.2 2.5 3.3
18 DeAndre Jordan DEN 5.7 6.2 1.3
19 Zeke Nnaji DEN 4.8 2.4 1.0
20 Dario Saric DEN 4.8 3.0 1.6
21 Gui Santos GS 4.7 2.9 1.3
22 Hunter Tyson DEN 4.2 1.8 0.7
23 Vlatko Cancar DEN 3.5 2.6 1.0
24 Kevon Looney GS 3.4 3.6 0.7
25 Kevin Knox II GS 3.0 1.4 0.5
26 Trey Alexander DEN 2.9 1.3 0.7
27 Spencer Jones DEN 2.8 1.9 0.6
28 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 2.1 1.2 0.5
29 Pat Spencer GS 2.0 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.