NBA games

CLE @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
114–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE38292423114
SA28223231113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home SA
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 34 26 3 7
Evan Mobley S 37 25 12 5
Darius Garland S 34 19 2 7
De'Andre Hunter 29 18 7 3
Sam Merrill 24 9 2 2
Isaac Okoro 20 6 4 0
Jarrett Allen S 16 4 4 3
Max Strus S 32 3 6 3
Craig Porter Jr. 6 2 1 1
Javonte Green 9 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 36 24 4 3
Harrison Barnes S 30 23 0 1
Stephon Castle S 33 22 9 11
Julian Champagnie 28 15 6 0
Chris Paul S 30 9 4 8
Keldon Johnson 24 7 4 3
Bismack Biyombo S 27 6 10 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 12 5 5 0
Blake Wesley 16 2 2 0
Jordan McLaughlin 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Evan Mobley · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Evan Mobley makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
15%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
3 Stephon Castle SA
10%
4 Evan Mobley CLE
9%
5 Darius Garland CLE
9%
6 Devin Vassell SA
7%
7 Harrison Barnes SA
7%
8 Bismack Biyombo SA
7%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
10 Chris Paul SA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
34%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 23.9 5.9 6.9
2 Darius Garland CLE 20.5 4.7 7.2
3 Stephon Castle SA 20.4 6.3 6.3
4 Evan Mobley CLE 19.9 8.7 4.0
5 Devin Vassell SA 17.5 4.9 2.9
6 Jarrett Allen CLE 15.9 8.8 1.9
7 Keldon Johnson SA 13.9 5.7 2.4
8 De'Andre Hunter CLE 12.6 3.6 1.6
9 Harrison Barnes SA 12.1 3.3 2.1
10 Chris Paul SA 11.0 4.0 5.7
11 Max Strus CLE 10.8 3.7 3.2
12 Julian Champagnie SA 10.1 4.0 1.9
13 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 9.3 4.6 1.3
14 Blake Wesley SA 7.3 2.5 2.3
15 Sam Merrill CLE 6.7 3.1 1.9
16 Isaac Okoro CLE 6.5 2.2 1.1
17 Bismack Biyombo SA 5.5 5.2 1.4
18 Chuma Okeke CLE 4.7 3.1 1.2
19 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 4.7 2.3 0.6
20 Malaki Branham SA 4.7 1.5 0.9
21 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.9 1.3 1.4
22 Javonte Green CLE 3.7 2.1 0.8
23 Jaylon Tyson CLE 3.7 1.5 1.0
24 Charles Bassey SA 3.7 4.8 0.5
25 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.2 1.6 1.0
26 Emoni Bates CLE 2.8 1.0 0.7
27 Luke Travers CLE 2.7 1.7 0.7
28 Tristan Thompson CLE 1.8 1.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.