NBA games

OKC @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
111–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC28253226111
HOU35342729125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home HOU
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Williams S 34 33 3 4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 35 22 4 8
Chet Holmgren S 31 20 4 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 28 16 7 4
Aaron Wiggins 19 8 3 0
Branden Carlson 2 3 1 0
Kenrich Williams 14 3 1 0
Luguentz Dort S 26 2 4 3
Cason Wallace 27 2 2 2
Alex Caruso 20 2 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 38 34 4 5
Alperen Sengun S 34 31 2 4
Amen Thompson S 38 16 8 6
Fred VanVleet S 37 13 0 6
Jae'Sean Tate 15 9 0 1
Jabari Smith Jr. 34 9 17 1
Steven Adams S 23 8 12 0
Tari Eason 18 5 4 1
Nate Williams 1 0 0 0
Reed Sheppard 1 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luguentz Dort assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
13%
2 Jalen Green HOU
13%
3 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
4 Amen Thompson HOU
11%
5 Chet Holmgren OKC
9%
6 Tari Eason HOU
9%
7 Jalen Williams OKC
9%
8 Fred VanVleet HOU
7%
9 Dillon Brooks HOU
7%
10 Cason Wallace OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
23%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 29.5 4.2 7.5
2 Jalen Williams OKC 23.4 4.8 5.9
3 Jalen Green HOU 23.4 5.7 4.7
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 19.4 10.5 5.2
5 Amen Thompson HOU 15.2 8.5 4.7
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 14.7 7.8 2.0
7 Tari Eason HOU 14.7 7.3 1.9
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 14.5 3.3 2.2
9 Fred VanVleet HOU 14.1 3.6 4.9
10 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.8 6.9 1.7
11 Cason Wallace OKC 12.9 3.9 3.5
12 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 12.6 8.8 3.7
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 12.3 3.1 1.7
14 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.5 4.6 1.7
15 Aaron Wiggins OKC 11.1 3.5 2.0
16 Alex Caruso OKC 7.9 3.2 2.0
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 7.8 3.9 2.0
18 Cam Whitmore HOU 5.9 2.1 1.2
19 Steven Adams HOU 5.8 7.0 1.3
20 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.5 1.5 1.3
21 Reed Sheppard HOU 5.5 1.5 1.6
22 Jock Landale HOU 5.0 2.5 0.8
23 Dillon Jones OKC 3.6 1.9 1.1
24 Jeff Green HOU 3.5 1.9 0.7
25 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.1 2.4 0.9
26 Nate Williams HOU 3.1 1.2 0.7
27 Branden Carlson OKC 3.0 1.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.