NBA games

POR @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
113–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR33212930113
CHI30224026118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home CHI
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 35 37 11 5
Dalano Banton S 34 21 3 3
Shaedon Sharpe S 35 17 2 5
Kris Murray 27 8 5 2
Donovan Clingan S 31 7 18 1
Rayan Rupert 21 7 4 0
Jabari Walker 20 7 6 4
Matisse Thybulle S 27 7 4 2
Justin Minaya 10 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Vucevic S 33 31 12 2
Coby White S 35 31 5 7
Josh Giddey S 39 15 19 12
Talen Horton-Tucker 16 13 0 0
Matas Buzelis S 34 12 12 1
Kevin Huerter S 34 9 2 1
Zach Collins 15 5 2 0
Patrick Williams 14 2 5 0
Julian Phillips 5 0 0 1
Dalen Terry 15 0 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Vucevic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Nikola Vucevic makes 9-foot two point shot (Coby White assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR
10%
2 Deandre Ayton POR
10%
3 Coby White CHI
9%
4 Deni Avdija POR
8%
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI
7%
6 Matas Buzelis CHI
7%
7 Kevin Huerter CHI
7%
8 Josh Giddey CHI
7%
9 Jerami Grant POR
6%
10 Donovan Clingan POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
51%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 26.6 10.2 6.4
2 Coby White CHI 26.0 4.1 4.5
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 23.5 6.2 3.5
4 Josh Giddey CHI 23.0 9.5 9.6
5 Anfernee Simons POR 21.5 2.9 4.3
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI 18.6 8.7 4.1
7 Deandre Ayton POR 18.3 10.8 2.4
8 Kevin Huerter CHI 16.2 4.2 4.0
9 Toumani Camara POR 14.9 4.5 2.8
10 Scoot Henderson POR 14.3 3.2 4.5
11 Matas Buzelis CHI 13.9 4.7 1.8
12 Jerami Grant POR 12.1 3.4 2.1
13 Patrick Williams CHI 9.0 3.2 1.9
14 Donovan Clingan POR 8.5 9.5 1.6
15 Duop Reath POR 8.4 3.8 1.2
16 Dalano Banton POR 6.8 2.6 2.5
17 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.4 3.1 1.5
18 Jalen Smith CHI 6.4 5.6 1.3
19 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 6.3 2.0 1.4
20 Dalen Terry CHI 6.1 2.5 1.7
21 Jabari Walker POR 5.9 3.4 0.7
22 Zach Collins CHI 5.6 4.4 1.7
23 Julian Phillips CHI 4.5 1.9 0.9
24 Jevon Carter CHI 4.2 1.1 1.5
25 Kris Murray POR 3.9 2.8 1.0
26 Jahmir Young CHI 3.2 1.1 1.1
27 E.J. Liddell CHI 3.0 1.5 0.7
28 Emanuel Miller CHI 3.0 1.3 0.6
29 Rayan Rupert POR 2.7 1.4 0.6
30 Justin Minaya POR 2.6 1.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.