NBA games

DET @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
117–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET29362824117
TOR28272228105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home TOR
77% 23%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 39 23 3 0
Jalen Duren S 36 21 18 6
Malik Beasley S 31 21 4 2
Dennis Schroder S 36 16 4 7
Ausar Thompson S 32 15 7 4
Marcus Sasser 20 10 4 1
Simone Fontecchio 14 5 1 1
Lindy Waters III 8 3 0 2
Ronald Holland II 13 3 5 3
Paul Reed 12 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja'Kobe Walter S 32 22 3 1
Jamal Shead 26 14 1 9
Immanuel Quickley S 29 14 8 8
Cole Swider 15 10 5 0
Jakob Poeltl S 31 10 11 2
Jamison Battle S 23 9 2 0
A.J. Lawson 23 9 3 1
Jonathan Mogbo S 29 6 8 0
Jared Rhoden 17 6 5 2
Orlando Robinson 16 5 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jonathan Mogbo · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Jonathan Mogbo makes dunk (Immanuel Quickley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jakob Poeltl TOR
16%
2 Jalen Duren DET
14%
3 Immanuel Quickley TOR
11%
4 Ausar Thompson DET
11%
5 Dennis Schroder DET
10%
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
10%
7 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR
9%
8 Jamal Shead TOR
9%
9 Orlando Robinson TOR
9%
10 Jamison Battle TOR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
23%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
28%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Immanuel Quickley TOR 21.8 3.9 6.5
2 Jakob Poeltl TOR 17.4 8.4 3.0
3 Jalen Duren DET 15.6 10.8 2.9
4 Malik Beasley DET 15.3 2.9 2.3
5 Dennis Schroder DET 13.5 3.1 6.0
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 13.0 3.0 1.7
7 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 12.9 3.9 2.7
8 Orlando Robinson TOR 12.3 6.7 2.3
9 Ausar Thompson DET 12.1 5.8 2.1
10 Jamal Shead TOR 12.1 2.8 5.0
11 Jamison Battle TOR 9.9 3.7 1.4
12 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 8.8 5.9 2.9
13 Ronald Holland II DET 7.9 3.4 1.7
14 A.J. Lawson TOR 7.6 3.4 1.3
15 Chris Boucher TOR 7.2 4.4 1.0
16 Jared Rhoden TOR 6.9 2.8 1.0
17 Simone Fontecchio DET 6.2 2.5 1.0
18 Marcus Sasser DET 6.2 1.0 1.5
19 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.9 4.8 1.2
20 Cole Swider TOR 5.2 2.1 0.8
21 Paul Reed DET 4.2 3.2 0.8
22 Lindy Waters III DET 3.8 1.5 0.8
23 Tolu Smith DET 3.0 2.1 0.6
24 Daniss Jenkins DET 3.0 1.2 0.7
25 Garrett Temple TOR 2.5 1.1 1.2
26 Bobi Klintman DET 1.6 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.