NBA games

PHX @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
103–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX22252828103
BOS31293033123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home BOS
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 38 37 5 6
Oso Ighodaro S 32 12 7 1
Tyus Jones 20 12 1 6
Royce O'Neale S 30 12 6 2
Collin Gillespie 13 8 2 0
Grayson Allen 17 8 1 1
Ryan Dunn S 25 5 1 0
Cody Martin 16 4 5 1
Nick Richards 14 4 7 0
Bradley Beal S 30 1 4 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 28 31 5 3
Jayson Tatum S 35 23 8 8
Kristaps Porzingis S 23 15 4 1
Derrick White S 33 12 9 7
Luke Kornet 15 12 4 0
Payton Pritchard 22 10 1 3
Al Horford 25 7 3 2
Sam Hauser 21 5 5 1
Jrue Holiday S 28 4 5 2
Baylor Scheierman 2 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
14%
2 Devin Booker PHX
10%
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
8%
4 Jaylen Brown BOS
8%
5 Bradley Beal PHX
8%
6 Nick Richards PHX
7%
7 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
8 Luke Kornet BOS
7%
9 Ryan Dunn PHX
6%
10 Xavier Tillman BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
36%
Jumper
20%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 27.4 7.8 7.2
2 Devin Booker PHX 24.9 4.1 8.0
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 20.3 6.5 2.8
4 Jaylen Brown BOS 20.3 5.5 5.0
5 Derrick White BOS 17.4 5.5 6.5
6 Bradley Beal PHX 17.0 3.0 3.8
7 Al Horford BOS 14.3 7.6 3.4
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 13.5 4.2 5.2
9 Payton Pritchard BOS 13.0 3.9 2.5
10 Sam Hauser BOS 9.9 2.9 1.3
11 Tyus Jones PHX 9.8 2.4 2.9
12 Nick Richards PHX 9.4 6.8 1.1
13 Ryan Dunn PHX 9.3 4.6 1.1
14 Luke Kornet BOS 8.4 6.3 1.4
15 Collin Gillespie PHX 7.8 3.1 3.3
16 Grayson Allen PHX 7.5 1.8 1.7
17 Royce O'Neale PHX 7.0 3.9 2.1
18 Vasilije Micic PHX 6.4 1.7 2.3
19 Oso Ighodaro PHX 6.2 4.6 1.6
20 Baylor Scheierman BOS 5.6 2.2 1.4
21 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.4 5.4 0.9
22 Neemias Queta BOS 4.9 4.1 0.9
23 Bol Bol PHX 4.1 2.3 0.6
24 Cody Martin PHX 4.0 3.2 1.1
25 Torrey Craig BOS 3.8 2.1 0.7
26 Monte Morris PHX 3.3 0.9 0.7
27 Damion Lee PHX 2.9 0.8 0.4
28 Drew Peterson BOS 2.8 1.3 0.8
29 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.8 1.7 0.7
30 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.8 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.