NBA games

UTAH @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
112140
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH34253518112
IND28294142140

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home IND
10% 90%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton S 33 27 3 3
Johnny Juzang S 36 17 3 0
Keyonte George 32 15 8 5
Isaiah Collier S 33 15 5 5
Brice Sensabaugh S 25 9 10 0
Micah Potter 24 9 7 1
Kyle Filipowski S 24 9 9 2
Svi Mykhailiuk 18 6 4 4
Jaden Springer 15 5 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Myles Turner S 27 26 7 1
Pascal Siakam S 29 22 5 5
Bennedict Mathurin 23 20 3 2
Tyrese Haliburton S 28 17 6 11
Aaron Nesmith S 20 12 3 0
T.J. McConnell 19 12 4 7
Andrew Nembhard S 27 11 6 3
Obi Toppin 19 6 4 4
Jarace Walker 14 5 7 3
Ben Sheppard 20 3 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Johnny Juzang · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Johnny Juzang makes 28-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
2 Collin Sexton UTAH
12%
3 Myles Turner IND
12%
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND
11%
5 Walker Kessler UTAH
10%
6 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
7 Andrew Nembhard IND
9%
8 Isaiah Collier UTAH
9%
9 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
8%
10 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
37%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Haliburton IND 21.5 4.1 10.8
2 Collin Sexton UTAH 19.8 3.2 4.2
3 Pascal Siakam IND 18.6 5.4 4.4
4 Keyonte George UTAH 17.0 3.6 4.2
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND 16.7 4.8 1.9
6 Myles Turner IND 16.2 7.8 1.9
7 Aaron Nesmith IND 15.7 4.5 1.8
8 Obi Toppin IND 14.5 4.3 2.1
9 Isaiah Collier UTAH 14.2 4.0 6.1
10 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 13.4 7.4 1.8
11 Andrew Nembhard IND 12.4 4.0 5.1
12 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 10.8 3.1 1.9
13 Walker Kessler UTAH 9.8 9.8 1.7
14 Johnny Juzang UTAH 9.0 2.7 1.6
15 T.J. McConnell IND 8.4 3.4 5.0
16 Jarace Walker IND 8.1 2.5 1.9
17 Thomas Bryant IND 6.4 3.6 0.9
18 KJ Martin UTAH 6.0 2.5 1.6
19 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 5.3 1.7 1.8
20 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 5.0 6.8 0.6
21 Ben Sheppard IND 5.0 3.2 1.8
22 Jaden Springer UTAH 4.5 1.9 1.3
23 Micah Potter UTAH 4.0 3.6 0.7
24 Tony Bradley IND 3.7 2.0 0.5
25 Johnny Furphy IND 2.9 1.7 0.7
26 RayJ Dennis IND 1.9 0.7 0.6
27 James Johnson IND 1.9 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.