NBA games

SAC @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
125–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC26423027125
CHA18312330102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home CHA
70% 30%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 33 25 10 3
Domantas Sabonis S 27 24 11 7
DeMar DeRozan S 27 22 4 3
Malik Monk 23 17 1 3
Trey Lyles 20 12 3 2
Jonas Valanciunas 19 6 7 2
Keegan Murray S 25 5 3 2
Keon Ellis S 23 3 2 0
Doug McDermott 6 3 1 0
Isaac Jones 7 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 28 22 2 1
Moussa Diabate 23 15 11 0
Tidjane Salaun 29 13 5 2
KJ Simpson S 33 13 1 4
Seth Curry S 23 9 6 1
DaQuan Jeffries S 32 8 4 1
Jusuf Nurkic S 24 8 8 3
Jaylen Sims 21 7 1 4
Josh Okogie 12 6 3 0
Taj Gibson 16 1 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Seth Curry · Layup (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Seth Curry makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
14%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
13%
3 Zach LaVine SAC
13%
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC
13%
5 KJ Simpson CHA
11%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
10%
7 Grant Williams CHA
9%
8 Seth Curry CHA
9%
9 Keon Ellis SAC
8%
10 Malik Monk SAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
28%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC 23.9 4.2 6.5
2 Malik Monk SAC 20.4 4.3 5.4
3 Zach LaVine SAC 20.2 3.4 4.1
4 Miles Bridges CHA 18.1 6.5 5.2
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC 14.9 10.8 4.9
6 Keegan Murray SAC 14.7 6.1 1.6
7 Grant Williams CHA 12.9 6.1 2.2
8 KJ Simpson CHA 11.3 3.9 4.0
9 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 10.9 3.4 1.6
10 Keon Ellis SAC 10.4 3.3 2.9
11 Tidjane Salaun CHA 9.5 5.5 1.9
12 Josh Okogie CHA 8.0 3.0 1.5
13 Jusuf Nurkic CHA 7.8 5.3 2.1
14 Seth Curry CHA 7.8 1.9 1.8
15 Trey Lyles SAC 7.1 4.5 1.4
16 Jonas Valanciunas SAC 6.9 5.5 1.1
17 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.4 3.6 0.7
18 Markelle Fultz SAC 3.9 1.5 1.1
19 Taj Gibson CHA 3.2 2.7 0.6
20 Jae Crowder SAC 3.0 1.7 0.5
21 Devin Carter SAC 3.0 1.4 0.8
22 Isaac Jones SAC 2.9 1.2 0.4
23 Doug McDermott SAC 2.7 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.