NBA games

GS @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
123–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS26342835123
LAL22253039116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home LAL
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 34 37 3 6
Brandin Podziemski S 36 28 8 6
Jonathan Kuminga 25 18 9 4
Moses Moody S 29 13 2 3
Jimmy Butler III S 36 11 4 2
Draymond Green S 34 8 11 5
Quinten Post 15 4 3 1
Gui Santos 11 2 2 3
Kevon Looney 8 2 1 0
Buddy Hield 13 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 40 33 5 9
Austin Reaves S 40 31 6 3
Rui Hachimura S 34 24 6 3
Luka Doncic S 38 19 8 7
Gabe Vincent 17 3 0 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 13 2 7 0
Jaxson Hayes S 15 2 3 0
Dorian Finney-Smith 29 2 1 1
Jordan Goodwin 14 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Austin Reaves · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Austin Reaves makes 22-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III GS
15%
2 LeBron James LAL
14%
3 Stephen Curry GS
10%
4 Luka Doncic LAL
10%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
6 Jaxson Hayes LAL
9%
7 Draymond Green GS
8%
8 Moses Moody GS
8%
9 Rui Hachimura LAL
8%
10 Brandin Podziemski GS
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
37%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 29.4 8.1 8.3
2 Austin Reaves LAL 25.1 4.8 6.3
3 Stephen Curry GS 24.3 4.4 5.7
4 LeBron James LAL 23.4 8.0 7.5
5 Jimmy Butler III GS 20.0 6.9 6.8
6 Brandin Podziemski GS 14.9 5.1 2.5
7 Jonathan Kuminga GS 12.3 3.3 2.5
8 Draymond Green GS 12.1 6.3 5.1
9 Moses Moody GS 11.8 3.3 2.4
10 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.1 4.1 1.4
11 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 9.7 3.9 1.6
12 Buddy Hield GS 8.8 3.2 1.8
13 Quinten Post GS 8.6 3.1 1.5
14 Gabe Vincent LAL 8.6 2.1 1.2
15 Jaxson Hayes LAL 8.5 5.6 1.4
16 Jordan Goodwin LAL 5.7 3.0 1.6
17 Gui Santos GS 5.2 3.1 1.4
18 Dalton Knecht LAL 5.0 1.6 1.1
19 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.0 3.3 1.3
20 Kevon Looney GS 3.6 3.8 0.7
21 Kevin Knox II GS 3.1 1.6 0.5
22 Shake Milton LAL 3.0 1.3 0.8
23 Bronny James LAL 3.0 0.7 0.7
24 Markieff Morris LAL 2.9 1.0 0.9
25 Christian Koloko LAL 2.4 2.2 0.6
26 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 2.2 1.3 0.5
27 Pat Spencer GS 2.1 1.1 0.5
28 Alex Len LAL 1.7 2.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.