NBA games

POR @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
112–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR29183629112
TOR31192627103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home TOR
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shaedon Sharpe S 34 36 7 5
Deni Avdija S 33 26 15 6
Dalano Banton S 37 23 3 2
Donovan Clingan S 30 8 13 3
Toumani Camara S 25 5 3 2
Matisse Thybulle 25 5 3 1
Rayan Rupert 12 5 3 0
Jabari Walker 18 2 4 0
Duop Reath 6 2 1 1
Justin Minaya 8 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 26 18 5 4
Ochai Agbaji 21 15 3 1
Orlando Robinson S 27 14 5 3
A.J. Lawson 18 13 3 4
Jonathan Mogbo 28 10 3 5
Jamal Shead S 25 10 3 3
Ja'Kobe Walter S 30 9 7 3
Jamison Battle 24 9 4 1
Scottie Barnes S 27 5 2 5
Cole Swider 14 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Shaedon Sharpe · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Shaedon Sharpe makes 10-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR
15%
2 Deandre Ayton POR
12%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
4 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
5 Deni Avdija POR
8%
6 Jerami Grant POR
7%
7 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
8 Anfernee Simons POR
7%
9 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR
7%
10 Jamison Battle TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
42%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 26.4 10.1 6.1
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 22.0 6.4 3.1
3 RJ Barrett TOR 22.0 5.9 6.2
4 Anfernee Simons POR 21.5 2.9 4.4
5 Scottie Barnes TOR 18.9 6.7 5.7
6 Deandre Ayton POR 18.2 11.2 2.4
7 Toumani Camara POR 15.1 4.6 2.9
8 Scoot Henderson POR 14.2 3.3 4.5
9 Orlando Robinson TOR 13.1 7.2 2.8
10 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 12.3 4.1 2.4
11 Jamal Shead TOR 11.9 2.9 5.6
12 Jerami Grant POR 11.8 3.4 2.1
13 Jamison Battle TOR 9.8 3.9 1.4
14 Donovan Clingan POR 9.5 9.3 1.8
15 Ochai Agbaji TOR 9.0 3.7 1.4
16 A.J. Lawson TOR 8.9 3.6 1.4
17 Duop Reath POR 8.7 4.1 1.2
18 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 8.0 6.0 2.5
19 Chris Boucher TOR 7.3 4.4 1.0
20 Jared Rhoden TOR 7.0 2.8 1.0
21 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.3 3.1 1.6
22 Cole Swider TOR 6.0 2.4 0.9
23 Jabari Walker POR 5.9 3.4 0.7
24 Dalano Banton POR 5.1 2.4 2.0
25 Kris Murray POR 3.8 2.8 0.8
26 Garrett Temple TOR 2.6 1.0 1.3
27 Rayan Rupert POR 2.5 1.0 0.6
28 Justin Minaya POR 2.4 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.