NBA games

MIL @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
126–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL25363530126
PHI39202826113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home PHI
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 39 35 17 20
Brook Lopez S 31 17 3 1
Kyle Kuzma S 32 16 4 3
Taurean Prince S 31 13 1 1
Gary Trent Jr. 23 13 2 1
AJ Green 19 12 2 0
Ryan Rollins S 29 10 2 1
Kevin Porter Jr. 18 8 5 3
Pat Connaughton 13 2 2 2
Andre Jackson Jr. 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Adem Bona S 35 28 6 0
Quentin Grimes S 38 24 3 10
Guerschon Yabusele S 35 22 6 3
Jared Butler S 31 14 1 4
Justin Edwards S 32 8 8 3
Jalen Hood-Schifino 19 7 3 3
Ricky Council IV 16 4 5 0
Lonnie Walker IV 17 4 4 4
Colin Castleton 16 2 3 3
Phillip Wheeler 1 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Adem Bona · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:58 Q1
"Adem Bona makes dunk (Jared Butler assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Quentin Grimes PHI
12%
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
10%
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
9%
4 Justin Edwards PHI
8%
5 Kyle Kuzma MIL
8%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
8%
7 Adem Bona PHI
8%
8 Andre Drummond PHI
7%
9 Ricky Council IV PHI
6%
10 Guerschon Yabusele PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
66%
Jumper
6%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 29.8 12.0 8.8
2 Quentin Grimes PHI 27.2 4.9 6.8
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 18.5 3.7 2.0
4 Kyle Kuzma MIL 17.7 5.7 3.3
5 Justin Edwards PHI 17.1 4.5 2.6
6 Brook Lopez MIL 17.0 5.5 2.9
7 Ricky Council IV PHI 13.6 5.8 2.5
8 Jared Butler PHI 13.1 2.7 5.4
9 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 12.8 3.0 1.8
10 Lonnie Walker IV PHI 12.6 3.6 3.1
11 Adem Bona PHI 12.5 8.4 1.5
12 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 11.7 6.2 2.4
13 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 11.0 4.0 3.7
14 Taurean Prince MIL 10.6 3.4 2.0
15 Ryan Rollins MIL 9.5 3.3 3.0
16 Jalen Hood-Schifino PHI 7.9 2.2 2.2
17 Colin Castleton PHI 7.6 6.8 1.7
18 Andre Drummond PHI 7.3 7.0 1.2
19 AJ Green MIL 6.2 2.2 2.0
20 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.1 2.6 1.5
21 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.2 1.7 0.7
22 Phillip Wheeler PHI 3.2 2.5 0.7
23 Tyler Smith MIL 2.9 1.3 0.6
24 Pete Nance MIL 2.8 1.3 0.6
25 Chris Livingston MIL 2.6 2.1 0.5
26 Stanley Umude MIL 1.9 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.